We have reached November, the month that separates the contenders from the suitors… Or at least we think so.
Last campaign, the Cincinnati Bengals they finished November and December with an unspectacular 4-3 record; they entered the playoffs seeding fourth in the AFC (fourth-worst division leader, 10-7) and then eliminated the top two teams in the Conference (Titans y Chiefs) to advance to the Super Bowl.
The Champions Rams? Same 4-3 record in those two months, including 0-3 in November. The Buccaneers they weren’t much better a year earlier, at 5-3.
It is not the norm, however, when it comes to the teams that win the Super Bowl. The 10 most recent champions combine for a record of 55-25 in November and December.
The best teams in the NFL they raise their level from this point in the season: they play better defense; they run the ball better and win the battle of turnovers.
And now that I mention the rushing game, the 2022 season has the highest average rushing yards per attempt (4.54) through Week 8 since 1970 and the 240.7 average rushing yards per game is the highest at this point in the season. since 1987 (243.7).
Now, running the ball doesn’t necessarily translate into wins. The Bears they lead the league with 188.4 rushing yards per game this season, the third-highest average by a team through their first eight games since 1990. The bad news is that Chicago also has the worst passing attack in the NFL and has only won three games.
Let’s go to the picks:
GAME OF THE WEEK
Tennessee en Kansas City (-12.5)
If there is a team that has the measure taken by the Chiefs, it is Tennessee. Yes, the Titans have won four straight regular-season games against Kansas City, including last season’s 27-3 win at Tennessee.
Obviously, the key piece has been Derrick Henrywho has 603 combined yards (120.6 per game) and six rushing touchdowns in five matchups against the Chiefs, including playoffs.
In last year’s October game, however, Kansas City’s defense did a good job of holding “King” Henry to 86 rushing yards (his longest rushing run was 11 yards) and zero touchdowns.
Steve Spagnuolo He must arrive this Sunday with a plan to have similar results, since Henry is the leader in the NFL with an average of 107.9 rushing yards per game.
The Chiefs’ defense is third-best against the run, allowing just 92 yards per game.
But if the Titans are able to establish the running game, they will not only dictate the tempo of the game, they will keep Patrick Mahomeswho only passed for 206 yards, no touchdowns and one interception in that October 2021 game.
But can Tennessee’s defense have the same results against Mahomes this time? We’ll see.
Mahomes leads the league with 20 touchdown passes; fourth with 2,159 passing yards and second with a rating of 109.5. The difference with the 2022 version of the talented Chiefs quarterback is that the departure of Tyreek Hill He has taught him to use all his weapons, which are many: Travis KelceJuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon, all with at least 13 receptions so far this season.
Opponents can’t focus on a single goal and that has made it virtually impossible to defend Mahomes.
El pick: With or without Ryan Tannehill as the starter, Tennessee depends on the performance and production of Derrick Henry. If Mike Vrabel’s defense can’t contain Mahomes and Kansas City scores a couple of quick touchdowns, then this game will be decided at halftime. Chiefs 28-17 Titans
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SURE PICK
Philadelphia (-14) not Houston
I’d rather watch Houston vs. Philadelphia in the World Series. Eagles 37-20 Texans
UPSET
Seattle at Arizona (-2)
A couple of weeks ago Seattle defeated Arizona 19-9 and the second round will have a similar result. Seahawks 21-17 Cardinals
TWO MINUTE DRIVE
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Atlanta
Watch out if Los Angeles’ lackluster run defense can’t stop Marcus MariotaCaleb Huntley and rookie Tyler Allgeier. Falcons 28-24 Chargers
Miami (-5) at Chicago
Justin Fields commands the worst passing attack in the league; Tua Tagovailoa one of the best. Dolphins 33-19 Bears
Carolina in Cincinnati (-7.5)
Did the Bengals’ offensive line struggles return or was it just a bad night in Cleveland? Cincinnati 24-14 Panthers
Green Bay (-3.5) not Detroit
Duel of hopeless in the NFC North. With the Lions the rule is that they always fight, but they always lose. Green Bay 30-27 Detroit
Las Vegas (-2) at Jacksonville
The Raiders are 0-4 on the road and the Jaguars already have a clue on how to beat the team from Josh McDaniels: stop the race. Jacksonville 23-17 Las Vegas
Indianapolis at New England (-5.5)
The Colts self-destructed the moment they decided that Sam Ehlinger he would be his quarterback for the rest of the season. New England 24-17 Indianapolis
Buffalo (-12.5) at New York Jets
And Zach Wilson doesn’t put a stop to his interceptions, the Jets will end up more bruised than Ben Affleck on vacation with Jennifer Lopez. Bills 41-21 Jets
Minnesota (-3.5) not Washington
Kirk Cousins you’ll be able to walk out of FedEx Field and shout “You like that?” again. Vikings 24-20 Commanders
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay (-3)
These used to be the two best teams in the NFC, but today their reality is different: Tom Brady he has problems on and off the field and the champions’ offense no longer surprises anyone. We will hardly see the loser of this game back in the Playoffs. Rams 27-24 Bucs
Baltimore (-2.5) en New Orleans
The Saints’ defense did a terrific job of containing the Raiders’ running game, but dealing with Lamar Jackson and company is another story. Baltimore 27-20 New Orleans
In the past week: 9-6
Total in the season: 67-55-1
IN THE LINE OF PLAY
| week 9 | better posture |
|---|---|
| Philadelphia not Houston | Eagles -14 |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta | Over 50 |
| Miami in Chicago | Dolphins -5 |
| Carolina in Cincinnati | Bengals -7.5 |
| Green Bay not Detroit | Over 49.5 |
| Las Vegas at Jacksonville | Under 48 |
| Indianapolis in New England | Patriots -5.5 |
| Buffalo at New York Jets | Bills -12.5 |
| Minnesota not Washington | Vikings -3.5 |
| Seattle in Arizona | Seahawks +2 |
| Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay | Rams +3 |
| Tennessee en Kansas City | Titans +12.5 |
| Baltimore en New Orleans | Ravens -2.5 |