[NHK Mile Cup / Hole Rise]Achievement horses are treated as “Ambush” “If this is popular, buy aggressively” | SPREAD

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2022.05.07

Keiichi Obata

the past 10 years,NHK Mile CupThe most popular result in is[3-1-1-5]. Half of them are involved outside the betting ticket, including Grenadier Guards, who finished third last year, and Resistencia, who finished second in 2020. On the other hand, the 10th most popular and below are[1-3-3-82]and 7 horses are included in the betting ticket, so it is calculated that the dark horse has a big hole once every two years.

Looking at the spots in the order of the previous run, only 5 of the 30 horses in the 3rd place in the last 10 years have finished 1st in the previous run. Considering that the Oka Sho, which is also a 3-year-old spring GI, has 12 heads, the Satsuki Sho has 20 heads, the Oaks has 13 heads, and the Japan Derby has 13 heads, it can be said that the NHK Mile Cup has few consecutive good runs. .. In the past five years, none of the first horses in the previous race were involved in the betting ticket.

◆[NHK Mile Cup 2022 Forecast / Anoma Analyze vol.2]Blind spots around “10 popularity” the day before “The previous run of the devastating defeat is ignored”

The reason why many rebounds due to the defeated horses in the previous race are seen at NHK Mile Cup is that the aptitude required for trial and production is different. The New Zealand Trophy, which has the largest number of runners, is a clockwise, tough Baba Nakayama course. On the other hand, the actual production is counterclockwise, and it is a light turf Tokyo course. Also, in Falcon S, the counterclockwise direction is the same because it is a Chukyo course, but the actual performance will be extended.

Other possible reasons include the course format, which is relatively unlikely to cause disadvantages, and the participation of the classic route group. From this, if you carefully examine the content and aptitude of the race so far, regardless of the order of the previous run, you will naturally be able to say “AnomaShould be visible.

■ King Hermes

When he made his debut in the Sapporo 1200m race in June last year, he got into 2nd place from a good start and got out of the straight line with a vivid victory. The Clover Award before the 3rd run, which was lacking in enthusiastic riding, lost to 5th place without showing off, but the long-awaited first victory of the heavy prize was given at the Keio Hai Nisai S, 2 years old S, who faced at intervals.

After that, there was a fracture, and it was the 4th most popular 3rd place in the previous run, Arlington C, which was the first time in 5 and a half months. After a long break, his first mileage match and hurdles seemed high, but if he was 0 seconds and 2 behind his winning horse, Danon Scorpion, he would have a great fight. He was well given a passing score.

This time, after being hit for a long time, we can expect a further rise, and the change of course to Tokyo, which has won the big prize, is a welcome material, and the performance will not be reduced in the mileage battle from the content of the previous run. If this is popular, I would like to actively incorporate it into my buying eyes.

The last concern is that I was a little worried that I was running at minus 8 kg in the previous run, which was a break due to the weight of the horse. I want to confirm the horse weight announced on the day of the race.

◆[NHK Mile Cup 2022 Forecast / Anoma Analyze vol.3]Assuming “10,000 betting tickets” in the betting ticket “There is no loss if you hold it down”

◆[NHK Mile Cup 2022 Forecast / Overtake Diagnosis]”S” evaluation that surpasses Serifos “No complaints” that easily passes old horses

◆[NHK Mile Cup 2022 Forecast / Data Strategy]Headwinds on 2 popular horses “Zero betting ticket rate” What is the data barrier?

▼ UMAJIN Channel “Winning! Okai Juku-NHK Mile Cup Edition”

Author profile

Tsuyoshi Yamada ● Editor-in-chief of “SPREAD”
Former editor-in-chief of horse racing monthly magazine, and now editor-in-chief of media “SPREAD” that reads the future of sports. He has been pursuing the Anoma conjecture ever since he was shocked by the runaway of the 16th most popular 2nd place Meisho Tesoro in the 1995 Mile CS. “Uma Musume” is recommended by Gold Ship.

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