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2022.05.07
the past 10 years,NHK Mile CupThe most popular result in is[3-1-1-5]. Half of them are involved outside the betting ticket, including Grenadier Guards, who finished third last year, and Resistencia, who finished second in 2020. On the other hand, the 10th most popular and below are[1-3-3-82]and 7 horses are included in the betting ticket, so it is calculated that the dark horse has a big hole once every two years.
Looking at the spots in the order of the previous run, only 5 of the 30 horses in the 3rd place in the last 10 years have finished 1st in the previous run. Considering that the Oka Sho, which is also a 3-year-old spring GI, has 12 heads, the Satsuki Sho has 20 heads, the Oaks has 13 heads, and the Japan Derby has 13 heads, it can be said that the NHK Mile Cup has few consecutive good runs. .. In the past five years, none of the first horses in the previous race were involved in the betting ticket.
The reason why many rebounds due to the defeated horses in the previous race are seen at NHK Mile Cup is that the aptitude required for trial and production is different. The New Zealand Trophy, which has the largest number of runners, is a clockwise, tough Baba Nakayama course. On the other hand, the actual production is counterclockwise, and it is a light turf Tokyo course. Also, in Falcon S, the counterclockwise direction is the same because it is a Chukyo course, but the actual performance will be extended.
Other possible reasons include the course format, which is relatively unlikely to cause disadvantages, and the participation of the classic route group. From this, if you carefully examine the content and aptitude of the race so far, regardless of the order of the previous run, you will naturally be able to say “AnomaShould be visible.
■ Taisei Divine
The first race was the Ogura 2000m race in July last year, and the first race was a bittersweet debut with 6th place. Since then, he has been using the middle distance and has won his first victory in the fifth race. After that, he continued to struggle with 10th place in the Keisei Stakes of GIII and 6th place in the Asunaro Award in the 1-win class, but he made progress to 2nd place in the Falcon Stakes two runs before the distance was shortened.
In the previous race, he entered Arlington C in the mileage match. He brilliantly escaped from the previous plan in the middle of the straight line, but in the end he succumbed to the assault of Danon Scorpion who had driven in from the outside and lost to the second place with a dismissal difference. It can be judged that there is no difference in ability in the form of exchanging only the amount that has become the goal of the winning horse. This distance fits.
Originally a horse that was highly evaluated for its qualities, it is not a flock to run in 2nd place in a row in a graded race. Despite the high ability, if it is a low evaluation that is faster to count from the bottom, it is a good buy. It’s one that won’t hurt to hold it down.
▼ UMAJIN Channel “Winning! Okai Juku-NHK Mile Cup Edition”
Author profile
Tsuyoshi Yamada ● Editor-in-chief of “SPREAD”
Former editor-in-chief of horse racing monthly magazine, and now editor-in-chief of media “SPREAD” that reads the future of sports. He has been pursuing the Anoma conjecture ever since he was shocked by the runaway of the 16th most popular 2nd place Meisho Tesoro in the 1995 Mile CS. “Uma Musume” is recommended by Gold Ship.