NOAA’s Seasonal Outlook Revised: Focus on Tracking Two Key Atmospheric Disturbances

Tropical Atlantic Under Watch: Two Systems Monitored, No Immediate US threat

TAMPA, FL – Meteorologists are closely monitoring two distinct areas of low pressure in the Atlantic Ocean for potential tropical progress, but officials emphasize neither currently poses an immediate threat to the United States.

one system, a weak low-pressure area, is tracking a path similar to recent storm Dexter and has a limited chance of strengthening into a named storm as it moves further away from the US coastline.

The primary focus remains on a tropical wave, designated Invest 96L, located in the central Atlantic. Forecasters are observing increasing signs of potential development for this system.A weakening in high-pressure systems to the north is expected to guide Invest 96L towards the central or western Atlantic next week.Early weather models corroborate this projected northward turn.

Understanding Hurricane Season & Long-Term Outlook

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1st to November 30th. While the peak of the season has passed, conditions remain favorable for tropical development, and vigilance is crucial.The formation of invest 96L highlights the ongoing need for preparedness, even late in the season. Factors influencing hurricane development include sea surface temperatures, atmospheric moisture, and wind patterns. Warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, a key ingredient for hurricane intensification, are currently present across much of the Atlantic basin.

staying Informed

Residents along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts are encouraged to stay informed about the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and local news sources. Having a hurricane preparedness plan in place – including supplies, evacuation routes, and communication strategies – is essential for ensuring safety throughout the remainder of the season.

FOX 13 meteorologist Nash Rhodes contributed to this report.

How might the increased intensity of atmospheric rivers impact water resource management in the Pacific northwest and California?

Understanding the Shift in NOAA’s Forecast

As of August 8, 2025, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has revised its seasonal outlook, placing heightened emphasis on monitoring two significant atmospheric disturbances impacting weather patterns across the United States. This update comes amidst already observable extreme weather events, including intense heat in the West and heavy rainfall in the Southeast, as highlighted by the National Weather Service. The revised outlook focuses on understanding and predicting the behavior of these systems to improve seasonal forecasts and preparedness. Key terms driving this shift include seasonal climate outlook, atmospheric rivers, and blocking patterns.

The Two Disturbances: A Deep Dive

NOAA’s current focus centers on two primary atmospheric phenomena:

1. Intensifying Atmospheric Rivers

What are Atmospheric Rivers? These are concentrated bands of moisture in the atmosphere, often referred to as “rivers in the sky.” They transport vast amounts of water vapor, and when they make landfall, they can deliver significant precipitation – both beneficial rainfall and damaging floods.

Current Activity & Forecast: The Pacific Northwest and California are notably vulnerable. NOAA is tracking an increase in the frequency and intensity of atmospheric rivers due to warmer ocean temperatures and altered jet stream patterns. This translates to a higher risk of flooding, landslides, and disruptions to water resources. Flood risk assessment and water resource management are becoming increasingly critical.

Monitoring Tools: NOAA utilizes advanced satellite imagery, radar data, and high-resolution weather models to track atmospheric rivers.The use of dropwindsondes – instruments released from aircraft – provides crucial data on atmospheric conditions within these systems.

Past Impact: The devastating floods in California during the winter of 2023 served as a stark reminder of the power of atmospheric rivers. These events caused billions of dollars in damage and displaced thousands of residents.

2. persistent Blocking Patterns

What are blocking Patterns? These are large-scale weather systems that disrupt the normal west-to-east flow of the jet stream. They can effectively “block” the movement of weather systems, leading to prolonged periods of the same weather conditions – such as heat waves, droughts, or cold snaps.

Current activity & Forecast: A strong blocking pattern is currently situated over the North Atlantic, contributing to the persistent heatwave in the Desert Southwest and influencing rainfall patterns in the Southeast.NOAA predicts this blocking pattern may persist through the fall, perhaps exacerbating existing drought conditions and increasing fire weather risks. jet stream dynamics and high-pressure systems are central to understanding these events.

Impact on Temperature & Precipitation: Blocking patterns can cause temperatures to soar or plummet, depending on their location and the time of year. They can also lead to prolonged periods of dry weather or excessive rainfall.

Predictive Challenges: Blocking patterns are notoriously difficult to predict, as they are influenced by complex interactions between the atmosphere and the ocean. NOAA is investing in research to improve its ability to forecast these events.

Regional Impacts & Preparedness

The interplay between atmospheric rivers and blocking patterns is creating a complex and challenging weather outlook for various regions:

Western US: Increased risk of wildfires due to hot, dry conditions exacerbated by blocking patterns, coupled with the potential for catastrophic flooding from atmospheric rivers. Wildfire mitigation strategies and flood preparedness are paramount.

Southeast US: Heavy rainfall and potential flooding due to the influence of atmospheric moisture transport and altered steering currents caused by the blocking pattern. Emergency response planning and infrastructure resilience are crucial.

Four Corners Region & Central Great Basin/Rockies: Elevated fire weather concerns due to hot, dry, and windy conditions. Red flag warnings and air quality alerts are becoming more frequent.

Pacific Northwest & California: High flood risk from atmospheric rivers, combined with potential drought conditions if the blocking pattern persists. Water conservation efforts and dam safety protocols are essential.

Benefits of Improved Seasonal Outlooks

Accurate seasonal outlooks provide numerous benefits:

enhanced Disaster Preparedness: Allows communities to prepare for potential extreme weather events, reducing the risk of damage and loss of life.

Optimized Resource Allocation: Enables efficient allocation of resources, such as emergency services, water supplies, and agricultural support.

Improved Economic planning: Helps businesses and industries make informed decisions about investments, operations, and supply chain management.

Proactive Public Health Measures: Facilitates the implementation of public health measures to protect vulnerable populations from heat waves, air pollution, and waterborne diseases.

Practical Tips for Staying Informed

Monitor NOAA’s Website: Regularly check the National Weather Service website (https://www.weather.gov/) for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Sign Up for Alerts: Subscribe to weather alerts from your local National Weather Service office.

Follow Reputable Weather Sources: Stay informed by following trusted meteorologists and weather organizations on social media.

Develop a Family Emergency Plan: Create a plan for how your family will respond to different types of extreme weather events.

* Stay Hydrated & Seek Shelter: During heat waves, drink plenty of fluids and seek shelter in air-conditioned environments. During floods, evacuate to higher ground.