Milzu straume dziļi okeānā vājinās, un tās iespējamā apstāšanās varētu radīt nāvējošas sekas visā pasaulē, tostarp ietekmējot Baltijas reģionu.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, known as AMOC, acts as a planetary conveyor belt moving warm water north and cold water south. This massive system keeps winters in Northern Europe remarkably mild compared to regions at similar latitudes in North America and Asia.
Global heating is disrupting this vital balance by melting the Greenland ice sheet and pouring freshwater into the North Atlantic. That influx dilutes the dense, salty water that normally sinks to the ocean floor, choking the engine that drives the entire current.
Forty-four climate and ocean researchers warned in an open letter published in October 2024 that the risk of an AMOC collapse has been severely underestimated. Nordic Council of Ministers subsequently received a report in February 2026 outlining these dangers, following an international seminar held in Helsinki and Rovaniemi in October 2025.
How the Conveyor Belt Functions
“Būtībā tā ir straume, kas veidojas okeānā, šajā gadījumā Atlantijas okeānā, kuras galvenais virzītājspēks ir temperatūras un sāļuma atšķirības atsevišķās okeāna daļās. Pateicoties tai, Eiropas virzienā, īpaši ziemā, kopā ar rietumu vējiem ierodas silta gaisa masa, kas sasilda Ziemeļeiropas krastus” Viļņas Universitātes asociētais profesors Dr. Justas Kažys explained to Lrytas.lt.
Rietumu vēši nenes rezultējošo siltumu Eiropas krastos katru ziemu.
Port cities across Scandinavia remain ice-free during freezing months precisely because of this steady thermal delivery. Summer months see less pronounced impacts as atmospheric and oceanic temperatures naturally align.
Baltic states sit within this climate zone, meaning any structural failure of the Atlantic system alters regional weather stability. Winter temperatures and precipitation patterns across Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia rely heavily on this distant oceanic momentum.
| Key Milestone | Date | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Open Letter Published | October 2024 | 44 climate researchers warned Nordic ministers of underestimated AMOC collapse risks. |
| Helsinki Seminar | October 2025 | International experts gathered in Finland to evaluate ocean circulation threats. |
| Nordic Report Released | February 2026 | Nordic Council of Ministers published a comprehensive preparedness framework. |
What Happens If the Currents Stop
A complete collapse of the AMOC would plunge the North Atlantic and much of Europe into deep freezes while global temperatures rise elsewhere. Precipitation would shift dramatically, winter storms would intensify, and sea levels would climb along Atlantic coastlines.
Agriculture, food production, and energy networks would face severe structural shocks under this extreme scenario. Researchers emphasize that these changes differ fundamentally from standard global warming projections, creating localized cooling right next to warming zones.
Uncertainty remains high regarding the exact timeline for these disruptions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded in its 2021 assessment that while the system will weaken this century, a sudden and complete collapse before 2100 is judged unlikely with medium confidence.
The core warning focuses on managing an unquantifiable risk carrying planetary consequences.
