2024-04-15 23:35:48
U.S. experts analyzed that it is highly likely that the Iranian-made ballistic missile used in the attack on Israel contained North Korea’s original technology. There has also been raised the possibility that North Korea and Iran are engaging in triangular technological cooperation using Russia as a link. Reporter Kim Young-kyo reports.
Joseph DeTrani, former U.S. deputy representative to the six-party talks.
Joseph DeTrani, former U.S. deputy representative for the six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear program, said in a phone call with VOA on the 15th, “Iran’s ballistic missile program relies heavily on technology provided by North Korea.”
[녹취: 디트라니 전 차석대표] “Over the years was North Korea had provided Iran with significant ballistic missile assistance. This goes back to 80s, certainly 90s and early 2000s. Iran’s ballistic missile program relies very heavily on the assistance North Korea previously had provided.”
North Korea has provided significant support to Iran in the past regarding ballistic missiles, and this support has continued from the 1980s to the early 2000s.
At the same time, he pointed out that there is a high possibility that the ballistic missiles used by Iran in the Israeli airstrike also contained North Korea’s original technology.
Previously, on the night of the 13th, Iran carried out an airstrike against Israel using at least 120 ballistic missiles, at least 30 cruise missiles, and about 170 drones.
Iran claimed the attacks were successful, but the Israeli military said most of them were intercepted and neutralized by Israeli air defenses.
Former Deputy Representative DeTrani said there is no doubt that the assumption that North Korea’s missile technology could be used by Iran to attack Israel, as Israel had previously feared, has become a reality with this attack.
[녹취: 디트라니 전 차석대표] “There’s no question about that. Yes, Israel had to be very concerned about the assistance that North Korea was providing on ballistic missile technology.”
Van Van Diepen, former Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation.
Van Van Diepen, a missile expert and former principal deputy assistant secretary of state for international security and non-proliferation affairs, said in a phone call with VOA on this day that, based on the wreckage shown in the released photos, some of the ballistic missiles Iran used in the Israeli airstrike were North Korean-made ‘Scuds’ or ‘Scuds’. He said it appears to be a member of the ‘Rodong’ missile series.
[녹취: 밴 디펜 전 수석부차관보] “We don’t know a lot right now about what missiles were actually used, but some of the debris that they’ve shown pictures suggest that at least some of the ballistic missiles that were launched were sort of Scud, Nodong’s family missiles. And so back in the early 1990s, North Korea transferred to Iran the capability to produce Scud B and Scud C and Nodong missiles. So in that sense, they’re almost certainly what started off is North Korean origin technology involved in this.”
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Van Diepen said that it is a well-known fact that in the early 1990s, North Korea delivered the capability to produce the Scud B and C types and Nodong missiles to Iran, and in that respect, North Korea’s original technology was used to counter Iran’s attack on Israel. He pointed out that it was almost certain that this was included.
However, he said he had seen no evidence of exchanges between North Korea and Iran regarding missile technology in recent years.
Robert Peters Heritage Foundation Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defense Fellow
Robert Peters, a nuclear deterrence and missile defense researcher at the Heritage Foundation, said in a phone call with VOA that day that although there is no evidence yet to prove that North Korea cooperated directly, it is highly likely.
In particular, it was assumed that such cooperation may have begun with Russia becoming a common denominator.
[녹취: 피터스 연구원] “It’s logical to assume that those actors that are already cooperating with one another, vis-a-vis with Russia as a common denominator, are now cooperating directly with one another. What you’ve seen over the past several months is an axis of cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow when it comes to their missile capabilities in which North Korea is providing Russia with, in particular, short range capabilities for use in the Ukraine war. And I think that we are seeing enough evidence to show that part of that quid pro quo is Russia, providing technical assistance to advance in particular, North Korea’s cruise missile program. And then, of course, we know about the Iranian and Russian cooperation when it comes to missiles and drone technology.”
One example of cooperation between North Korea and Russia has been North Korea’s efforts over the past few months to provide Russia with short-range missiles that could be used in the war in Ukraine, Peters said.
He also said there was ample evidence to show that, as part of the quid pro quo, Russia was providing technical assistance to advance North Korea’s cruise missile program.
In addition, cooperation between Iran and Russia in missile and drone technology is well known, and researcher Peters analyzed that the cooperation that started as an intersection with Russia may have evolved into a direct cooperation relationship between North Korea and Iran.
At the same time, it was observed that if there had been cooperation between North Korea and Iran, North Korea would have helped improve the accuracy of Iranian missiles.
[녹취: 피터스 연구원] “Where North Korea could help with is on accuracy and so helping to make sure that that the Iranian missiles, which had had some difficulty when it comes to accuracy. I mean, they’ve frankly, for a number of years have been inaccurate as it can be. And I think that North Korea is in a place where they can help them from an accuracy perspective. North Korea itself has significantly increased the accuracy of its ballistic missiles over the past decade and a half. And so to me, that’s the most likely area for cooperation.”
While Iran’s missiles have been less accurate over the past few years, North Korea has significantly improved the accuracy of its ballistic missiles over the past 15 years, Peters said. ‘Improved accuracy’ was diagnosed.
Bruce Bennett, senior researcher at the Rand Research Institute.
Bruce Bennett, a senior researcher at the Rand Institute, said in a phone call with VOA that day that the cooperation between Iran and North Korea is unclear at this point because there is no direct evidence, but considering the military cooperation exchanged between North Korea and Russia, it is possible that they will do the same with Iran. He pointed out that the possibility is very high.
[녹취: 베넷 선임연구원] “I think at this stage, the best we can say is, we don’t know whether or not North Korea provided any technologies. Since North Korea has been sending them to Russia, there’s no reason to believe that they wouldn’t also send them to Iran. So it’s certainly possible they did. I just haven’t seen any evidence of it.”
He also pointed out that most of the ballistic missiles Iran launched toward Israel were shot down, raising the possibility that Iran may have launched a large number of old missiles to clear its inventory.
In that case, it was analyzed that it was more likely that it was an older Rodong missile, a mid-range ballistic missile, rather than a Scud, a short-range ballistic missile.
[녹취: 베넷 선임연구원] “The ballistic missiles seem to be pretty easy to shoot down. And that suggests that they were old missiles that they were trying to get rid of the stocks and the distances of the launch were such that wouldn’t have been a Scud missile. It could have been potentially a Nodong. That would have enough range. So it may be that they fired a bunch of old Nodongs. If that’s the case, those are very old missiles and not particularly daunting in terms of technology.”
Senior researcher Bennett said that if Iran had used the North Korean-made Rodong missile, it would not pose a technological threat.
However, Iran pointed out that it must keep a close eye on threats as there is a possibility that North Korea may have left the new missiles unused even after receiving them.
North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency released footage of North Korea launching a KN-23 short-range ballistic missile from the Lakeside Peninsula area. (file photo)
This means that missiles like the KN-23, known as the North Korean version of Iskander, which North Korea has been test-firing intensively since 2019, may have been delivered to Iran.
[녹취: 베넷 선임연구원] “We don’t know is what other kinds of missiles have been transferred, but probably some of the KN-23 missiles have been and if so, that would mean that you’ve got missiles that can maneuver, you’ve got missiles that can pop up and pop down and so a much more threatening kind of capability. And that may well be what Iran chose to hold back on at this stage. So that if Israel does indeed retaliate as some expect they do, Iran will have something to escalate. With to cause some real damage to Israel.”
The KN-23 missile is a short-range ballistic missile capable of anomalous maneuvering, and it is known that North Korea may have provided it to Russia for use in the war in Ukraine.
Senior researcher Bennett said that if Iran possesses the KN-23 missile, “it means that it has a missile with a much more threatening type of capability,” and that Iran may have refrained from using it at this stage.
He said Iran may have new ballistic missile weapons on standby, more powerful than those used in its first attack on Israel, to use as countermeasures in case Israel retaliates.
This is Kim Young-kyo from VOA News.
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