2023-10-22 15:51:41
The result will still not be enough to reduce regional inequalities, according to consultancy
EDUARDO CUCOLO
SÃO PAULO, SP (FOLHAPRESS)
With a series of public and private investments scheduled for the next decade, the Northeast should be the region of the country with the highest economic growth in the period 2025-2033, according to projections by Tendências Consultoria.
The recession that began in 2014 interrupted a period in which the region grew above the national average, although at levels lower than those seen in the North and Central-West.
The last two should continue to perform well over the next few years, also driven by more investments – and by agribusiness, in the case of the Central-West.
Lucas Assis, economist and analyst at Tendências Consultoria, highlights that the greater growth of these three regions in relation to the South and Southeast does not necessarily represent a significant reduction in the country’s regional inequalities, although it is good news.
The investments planned for the Southeast, for example, exceed those expected for the Northeast in monetary values, but are smaller, proportionally, to the size of its economy. In other words, in more developed regions, these investment contributions have smaller impacts.
“The Northeast will be the region that will lead, in terms of interannual GDP variation [Produto Interno Bruto], the growth of the next decade. Investments will boost the region in the coming years, but the Southeast must continue to be the main driver of the Brazilian economy”, says Assis.
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“As much as there is this expectation of growth [para o Nordeste], it should not result, at least in the next ten years, in an improvement in the country’s economic heterogeneity. Economic vulnerabilities and this marked inequality must remain.”
In the Northeast, the consultancy highlights Petrobras’ investment of around US$8 billion in the Abreu e Lima Refinery, in the municipality of Ipojuca (PE), to expand refining capacity in the country. The first unit, with capacity to refine 115 thousand barrels of oil per day, has been in operation since 2014. The so-called train 2 project adds a refining capacity of 150 thousand barrels.
In the same state, the automotive group Stellantis will invest approximately US$ 1.5 billion to expand its supplier park in Goiana (PE).
Another highlight is the investment of approximately US$830 million to implement a refinery in Complexo do Pecém (CE), by the company Noxis Energy.
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Ecio Costa, professor of Economics at UFPE (Federal University of Pernambuco) and partner at CEDES Consultoria e Planning, highlights the importance of the planned investments of the New PAC (Growth Acceleration Program), of almost R$ 100 billion in the state (R $700 billion across the Northeast).
“The Northeast has a huge need for investment in infrastructure, but we have to see in reality how much of this will get off the ground and be effectively implemented. Previous PACs had a very low completion rate”, says Costa.
Almost half of the New PAC’s list of works is made up of promises resurrected from previous versions of the plan.
In Pernambuco, according to him, one of the bottlenecks is the road infrastructure, which tends to improve with works such as the Arco Metropolitano and the duplication of some sections of BR-104, which runs parallel to BR-101 in the interior.
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He also cites the impact of the Bolsa Família program with higher values, in sectors such as the food and beverage industries.
In the North, Tendências highlights Vale’s investments in mining in Pará and works to reduce logistical bottlenecks for the flow of agricultural production from the Center-West.
In the central region, in addition to agribusiness, three major projects for new factories in the paper and cellulose sector in Mato Grosso do Sul stand out.
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Lucas Assis, from Tendências, states that one of the main risks to the realization of these projections and investments is the performance of projects linked to the public sector. “The deteriorated fiscal situation should continue to limit public disbursements”, he states.
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Even private investments can be limited by factors such as high interest rates, high inflation and increased global uncertainties that restrict the flow of resources to emerging countries.
The consultancy expects average growth in the country of 2.5% from 2025 to 2033, similar to that seen from 1996 to 2005, but below the 2006-2014 average (3.5%), the period that preceded the last major recession.
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