More than half of voters in Northern Ireland now favor the United Kingdom rejoining the European Union, a decade after the original referendum sparked years of political and economic friction.
A new survey conducted by Queen’s University Belfast and LucidTalk reveals that 52% of the electorate supports a return to the bloc, with only 38% opposed to the idea.
The findings, released as part of the university’s 16th "Testing The Temperature" series, show growing disillusionment with life after Brexit. Among those surveyed between October 23 and 26, 63% of respondents said that the reality of Brexit has proven more disruptive than they initially anticipated back in 2016.
Next week, Prime Minister Andy Burnham is scheduled to travel to Brussels for a high-stakes summit, where he aims to finalize new agreements regarding food and energy trade. While the government seeks to foster closer ties, the polling suggests many domestic voters want a more fundamental realignment.
Support for rejoining the EU is starkly divided along political lines. According to the research, 88% of SDLP voters, 86% of Sinn Féin supporters, and 83% of those backing the Alliance party favor a return to membership. Conversely, opposition remains strong among unionist ranks, with 92% of TUV voters, 84% of DUP supporters, and 63% of UUP voters rejecting the prospect of rejoining the EU.
The data also points to a marked decline in confidence regarding the Windsor Framework, the mechanism designed to manage trading frictions between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Only 45% of respondents now view the framework as “on balance a good thing,” marking the lowest level of support since June 2021.
Just 44% of those polled believe the framework is an appropriate method for managing the post-Brexit reality, a sharp drop from the 60% recorded in February 2024. The findings highlight that many voters view the agreement’s impact on political stability and the region’s position within the UK internal market as predominantly negative.
“Our findings suggest that opposition to the Windsor Framework is driven less by resistance to practical cooperation with the EU than by concerns about Northern Ireland’s place in the UK,” said Professor Katy Hayward. “As the UK Government seeks closer cooperation with the EU that brings tangible benefits, it will be hoping pragmatism outweighs Brexit purism among Leave voters,” she added.
While 77% of respondents believe there is an urgent need for “serious dialogue” regarding the UK’s long-term relationship with the EU, 69% feel they lack the information necessary to participate in an informed public debate.
This sentiment is echoed by the academics overseeing the study, who suggest that the current political climate offers little assurance that these complex issues will be handled transparently. The survey of 1,050 respondents indicates that only 16% believe politicians are capable of debating these options in an informed manner.
“Voters in Northern Ireland generally welcome the prospect of the UK having a closer relationship with the EU. But with the UK Prime Minister keen to have a ‘serious dialogue’ on where next, it is striking how few, 16%, believe that politicians will be able to debate options in an informed manner,” said Professor David Phinnemore.
The report highlights the lingering constitutional and economic anxieties that continue to define the post-Brexit era.
