New Zealand’s government has warned of potential disruptions to fuel supplies if the conflict in the Middle East escalates, as airlines start to feel the pinch of soaring jet fuel prices. The warning came as Air New Zealand suspended its earnings guidance and increased fares, citing extreme volatility in the market.
Associate Energy Minister Shane Jones told Checkpoint that while current fuel deliveries were assured for the coming months, “get to May we’re told by the industry unless things change there’ll be big challenges.” The comments followed the closure of the Straits of Hormuz and damage to infrastructure in the region, triggering record oil prices.
A newly formed ministerial oversight group, led by Finance Minister Nicola Willis, will convene for the first time on Wednesday to discuss options for mitigating the impact of rising energy costs. The group includes Jones, Minister of Agriculture and Trade Todd McLay, Minister of Energy Simon Watts and Minister of Commerce Scott Simpson. Jones indicated the government was monitoring potential price gouging and the impact on key industries, including the fertiliser sector which relies on imports from the Middle East, including Iran.
Air New Zealand confirmed fare increases ranging from $10 on domestic economy one-way fares to $90 on long-haul economy flights. The airline stated it may need to further increase prices or adjust its flight schedules if fuel costs remain elevated. Air Chathams reported an additional $140,000 monthly fuel expense, potentially leading to flight reductions.
Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) data reveals New Zealand currently holds 27 days of petrol, with an additional 22 days en route. Diesel reserves stand at 24 days, with 29 days on the water, while jet fuel supplies cover 28 days, with 22 days shipped. However, some oil companies have already invoked force majeure clauses, freeing them from contractual obligations due to the extraordinary circumstances.
Wise Response Society chair Nathan Surendran warned that the cascading force majeure declarations from Gulf and Asian suppliers could lead to fuel cargoes being diverted to nations willing to pay a premium. Reports suggest cargoes are already being redirected from Europe and Africa to Asia. Surendran urged the government to consider signalling possible rationing now, citing Australia’s implementation of rationing despite having greater reserves and domestic refining capacity.
According to reports from March 10, 2026, Qantas Airways likewise announced fare hikes on its international routes in response to the surge in jet fuel costs, and is considering adding capacity on its existing Europe routes.
The conflict has already resulted in approximately 1300 fatalities, according to available reports.
