Ohio State vs. Miami Cotton Bowl Preview: Betting Odds, Over/Under, and Expert Pick for the CFP Quarterfinal

Breaking: Ohio State Rebounds Against Miami in CFP Cotton Bowl Quarterfinal

ARLINGTON, texas – Ohio State returns to the field after a month to reassemble following a Big Ten title-game defeat, aiming to keep its College Football Playoff hopes alive with a this Cotton Bowl showdown against the Miami Hurricanes. The winner advances to the CFP semifinals, intensifying the stakes for both programs in a high-stakes desert of talent and strategy.

What’s on the line

The Cotton Bowl Classic serves as a CFP quarterfinal, pitting the No. 2 seed Buckeyes against the No. 10 seed Hurricanes. A victory would push Ohio state toward another shot at the national championship, while Miami seeks a marquee upset to bolster its postseason resume and playoff aspirations.

Odds, money line and over/under

Betting markets hovered close to kickoff, offering a sharp contrast in expectation between the programs. Odds were as follows:

• Moneyline: Ohio State -350, Miami +280
• Spread: Ohio State by 9.5 points
• Over/Under: 42.5 points

Source notes: odds are provided by a major sportsbook operator and reflect the near-term consensus just before kickoff. for ongoing lines, visit the official sportsbook page.

Predictions and key factors

Analysts anticipate a tight, defensively driven matchup. One projection suggests a conservative, hard-fought final score, with Ohio State prevailing 24-16. The analysis highlights OSU’s strength on defense, particularly against the pass and on third downs, while Miami must find ways to stretch the field to loosen the Buckeye secondary.

Carson Beck’s NFL-projected potential is noted in previews, with discussions about his upside and the balance Miami must strike to exploit the Buckeyes’ defensive front.Miami will need to win several critical battles, including converting third downs and pressuring Ohio State’s receivers at key moments.

Historical context points to Ohio State’s sturdy third-down defense, ranking among the nation’s best, while Miami faced a tougher guard against a top-tier pass defense. The Hurricanes will need to open up the offense and avoid stalling against a veteran defense capable of flipping momentum in a single drive.

Key numbers at a glance

Category	Ohio State	Miami
Moneyline	-350	+280
Spread	−9.5	n/a
Over/Under	42.5	42.5
Projected Score	24	16
Notable matchup	Ohio State defense vs Miami offense	Miami pass rush vs Ohio State receivers

Evergreen insights for fans and bettors

This matchup embodies a broader narrative: a disciplined, defensively anchored Ohio State team seeking to translate a late-season surge into playoff momentum.For fans, the game highlights how a CFP quarterfinal can hinge on a handful of third-down stops, turnover avoidance and timely playmaking in the red zone.

Beyond the immediate result, the contest offers durable takeaways for evaluating teams in playoff contention: how well a defense can sustain pressure on prolific offenses, how efficiently a quarterback operates under game-time pressure, and how a program responds to a mid-season setback when the postseason is on the line.

For readers following the playoff race, this game is more than a single result-it’s a metric for future seeding implications, potential rematches, and the evolving dynamics of elite defenses meeting high-powered offenses. A win hear reinforces Ohio State’s status as a championship contender; a Miami upset would recalibrate expectations across the sport and the playoff bracket.

Two reader questions

• Which factor will decide the Cotton Bowl: Ohio state’s defensive discipline or Miami’s ability to open the offense?
• How would a Miami victory reshape your view of the CFP landscape this season?

What to watch next

Keep an eye on Ohio state’s ability to convert on third downs and Miami’s pressure on the buckeye quarterback. The game’s tempo,field position battles,and red-zone efficiency will likely dictate the winner and the next steps in the playoff pursuit. For deeper context, you can consult official playoff and college football resources from the College Football Playoff and NCAA, and also leading outlets covering team-by-team analysis.

Follow live coverage and updates from major outlets, and for official context on postseason structure and seeding, visit the CFP’s official site and major sports publishers.

Engage with the story

Share your thoughts in the comments below or join the discussion on social media. Do you expect Ohio State to ride a defensive masterclass to a playoff win, or is miami poised to pull a mid-tier upset that shakes the college football landscape?

External references: BetMGM, College Football Playoff, NCAA Football, ESPN College Football.

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Head‑to‑Head & Recent Trends

Ohio State vs. Miami – Cotton Bowl CFP quarterfinal Preview

Game Overview & Stakes

• Date & Time: December 28,2025,7:30 PM EST
• Venue: AT&T stadium,Arlington,Texas (Cotton Bowl)
• CFP Implication: Winner advances to the College Football Playoff semifinal in New Orleans; loser is eliminated from title contention.

Ohio State Buckeyes – Current Form

Category	Detail
Overall Record	12‑0 ( undefeated )
Conference	Big Ten – 8‑0
Key Offense Stats	450 YPG total offense; 8.5 YPG rushing; 35.2 PPG
Defensive Highlights	18.9 YPG allowed; 2.1 Sacks per game; 4 turnovers forced
Top Performers	• QB Cameron Rhodes – 3,620 yds, 29 TD, 6 INT • RB Malik Turner – 1,210 yds, 14 TD • DE J.J. Hartman – 12 Sacks, 3 forced fumbles
Injury Report	Starting LT Ethan Novak questionable (ankle); backup expected to start if needed.

miami Hurricanes – Current Form

Category	Detail
Overall Record	11‑1 ( ACC co‑champion )
Conference	ACC – 7‑1
Key Offense Stats	418 YPG total offense; 5.9 YPG rushing; 34.0 PPG
Defensive Highlights	21.5 YPG allowed; 2.8 Sacks per game; 3 turnovers forced
Top Performers	• QB Jaxson Patel – 3,845 yds, 31 TD, 8 INT • WR Tyson “Flash” Monroe – 1,025 yds, 10 TD • LB Kareem Hassan – 112 tackles, 1.5 sacks
injury Report	Starting CB Leonardo “Leo” Ramos out (hamstring); depth at cornerback may be tested.

Head‑to‑head & Recent Trends

• All‑time series: Ohio State leads 14‑6.
• Last meeting (2023 Peach Bowl): Ohio State won 38‑31; both teams displayed balanced attacks and dynamic play‑calling.
• CFP Quarterfinal patterns: Since 2015,the higher‑seeded team wins 68 % of the time; however,underdogs a strong rushing attack have pulled off 4 upsets (e.g., 2022 and 2024).

Betting Odds (as of 02:00 AM EST, Dec 28, 2025)

Bookmaker	Ohio State	Miami	Point Spread	Moneyline
DraftKings	-9.5	+9.5	Ohio State -9.5 (-110)	Ohio State -550
FanDuel	-9	+9	Ohio State -9115)	Ohio State -525	BetMGM	-9.5	+9.5	Ohio State -9.5 (-105)	Ohio State -540

All odds are subject to change up to kickoff.

Over/Under Numbers

• Primary Line: 69.5 points (BetMGM)
• Alternate Totals: 66.0 (low) / 73.0 (high) – offered by Caesars and PointsBet.
• Trend: Over has hit 58 % of the last 20 quarterfinal games; under has hit 42 %.

Why the Total Is Near 70

1. Dual‑Threat QBs: Rhodes (65 % completion) and Patel (68 % completion) both excel in the red zone.
2. Balanced Attack: Both teams rank in the top 10 nationally for passing and rushing yards per game.
3. Defensive Turnover Potential: Ohio State’s secondary forced 3 turnovers in its last three games; Miami’s secondary is missing a starter, potentially increasing scoring opportunities.

Expert Pick & Rationale

Pick: Ohio State -10 (covering the spread) and Over 69.5

Rationale:

1. home‑field-Style Advantage: Although the game is at a neutral venue, Ohio State’s 2024 CFP experience and larger fan presence (estimated 65 % of crowd) create a psychological edge.
2. Rushing Dominance: Ohio State’s offensive line has allowed <1.5 SACK per game; their inside runs average 5.2 YPG. Expect at least 150 rushing yards,keeping the clock moving and setting up play‑action passes.
3. Turnover Edge: Buckeyes forced 12 turnovers in the regular season, double Miami’s 6.A short field after a turnover could quickly push total points over.
4. Defensive Matchup: Miami’s missing CB reduces its ability to limit Rhodes’ deep throws; Ohio State’s WR corps (13‑20‑22) can exploit one‑on‑one situations.

Key Betting Tips

1. Live‑Bet Early on the Spread: Ohio State’s first‑quarter drive is projected to be 12‑15 points. A rapid early lead frequently enough forces Miami into a pass‑heavy approach, widening the spread.
2. Take the Over if You expect a Defensive Slip: Miami’s injury (Ramos) could lead to a 10‑15 point swing in passing yards for Ohio State.
3. Watch the Prop Market: Player‑specific props such as “Cameron Rhodes over 250 passing yards” and “Malik Turner over 95 rushing yards” carry value at -115 on FanDuel.
4. Consider the Half‑Time Line: Ohio State is favored by 6½ points at halftime; if the Buckeyes open strong, a halftime bet could be a low‑risk hedge.

Weather & Field Conditions

• Temperature: 58 °F (clear skies).
• Wind: Light 4 mph from the southwest – negligible impact on passing or kicking.
• Field Surface: Synthetic turf, consistent footing for both ground and aerial attacks.

Potential Game‑Changing Factors

• Ohio State’s LT Situation: If Ethan Novak cannot start, backup O.J. Finn may face a blitz-heavy miami front; this could increase sack totals against the Buckeyes.
• Miami’s Third‑Down Efficiency: The Hurricanes have converted 45 % of third downs this season; a strong performance here could keep drives alive and sustain scoring.
• Special Teams: Ohio State’s kicker Jake Collins is 96 % extra‑point and 85 % from 40+ yards; Miami’s punter Rashad Kline averages 45.2 yds, potentially pinning Ohio State deep and limiting early scoring bursts.

Final Quick Reference

• Spread: Ohio State -9.5 (DraftKings)
• Moneyline: Ohio State -550 (FanDuel)
• Over/Under: 69.5 (betmgm)
• Expert Pick: Ohio State -10 & Over 69.5

Keep an eye on the latest injury updates and betting line movements up to kickoff for optimal wagering decisions.