Oil: no shortage on the horizon

The world will not run out of oil despite Russia’s isolation, the IEA says. Alert, however, on the summer, a period marked by major automobile movements in North America and the resumption of air traffic.

With or without Russia, the world should not run out of oil in the short term. This is the prognosis drawn up on Thursday by the International Energy Agency (IEA), about the possible fallout from the growing isolation affecting Russia. In its monthly oil report, the agency estimates that the steady increase in production outside Russia, combined with a slowdown in demand growth, particularly in China, should postpone any acute supply shortfall. short term.

Despite the current uncertainties, the IEA also notes that volatility remains high on the market, but that prices are moving in a tighter and lower range of 10 dollars a barrel above 100 dollars. For this year, therefore, the agency is counting on an increase in demand of around 1.8 million barrels per day (mb/d), to reach 99.4 mb/d in total.

However, the pace of growth is expected to slow down over the course of the year, with slowing global growth, rising prices at the pump and the return of severe lockdowns in China. Alert, however, on the summer! During this period marked by large car movements in North America and the resumption of air traffic and in the event that refiners are unable to keep pace, this could have an impact on consumers.

On the supply side, the IEA notes growing Russian isolation following its invasion of Ukraine, as the West considers an embargo and major brokerages turn away from Russian oil. “After a supply decline of nearly 1 mb/d in April, losses could increase to nearly 3 mb/d in the second half of the year,” the authors predict.

But the IEA is counting on the increase in volumes from the United States and countries in the Middle East to compensate for these losses. She thus thinks that world production excluding Russia should increase by 3.1 mb/d between May and December.

Sami Nemli With AFP / ECO Inspirations