Oil Prices Fluctuate Amid Geopolitical Tensions: OPEC+ Meeting, Middle East Conflict, and Voluntary Production Cuts

2024-01-02 21:58:41

Oil prices had an eventful day, climbing by more than 2% during the session, pushed by the increase in geopolitical risk before finally ending sharply lower.

The price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea, for delivery in March, fell 1.49% to $75.89 after climbing 2.15% in the morning.

Its American equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), for delivery in February, fell 1.77% to 70.38 dollars while it gained 2.18% a few hours earlier.

“Prices went in all directions. All risk assets in fact came under strong pressure,” underlined Bob Yawger of Mizuho, ​​recalling that the stock market clearly ran out of steam on Tuesday, after nine weeks of continuous progression.

“I’m surprised that the market went down as an Iranian destroyer entered the Red Sea,” the analyst admitted.

The Iranian warship Alborz entered the Red Sea through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, local media reported on Monday, in a context of tensions on this strategic route, scene of repeated attacks by Yemen’s Houthis against merchant ships which they consider linked to Israel.

In addition, the Danish shipping giant Maersk announced that it would not resume the passage of its fleet through a strategic strait in the Red Sea, following the attack by Houthi rebels against one of its ships.

For the Mizuho USA expert, oil prices changed direction “when we learned that OPEC+ was going to hold a meeting of its Monitoring Committee in February”.

“This risks being an opportunity for OPEC+ to once again display its disagreements”, which is unfavorable for price movements, continued Mr. Yawger.

At the same time, voluntary production cuts by certain members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC+), decided at the end of November, nevertheless came into force in January, which should have provided support for prices.

Furthermore, in the conflict in the Middle East, Hamas number two was killed in a strike attributed to Israel near Beirut on Tuesday.

“Some might say that we are getting a little closer to a conclusion” of the conflict between Hamas and Israel “but I think Mr. Netanyahu’s government is convinced that there is still a lot of work to do,” he said. judged the analyst.

On the European natural gas side, the Dutch TTF futures contract, considered the European benchmark, lost 6.41% to 30.27 euros per megawatt hour (MWh).

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