Oil Prices Surge Despite Rise in US Inventories and OPEC+ Meeting: Analysis and Updates

2023-06-01 19:44:00

Brent ended up 2.31% at $74.28 and WTI ended up 2.95% at $70.10.

Oil prices moved strongly back into the green on Thursday after a key vote in favor of resolving the US debt ceiling impasse and despite a rise in weekly US inventories.

The barrel of Brent from the North Sea, for delivery in August, which is the first day of use as a benchmark contract, gained 2.31% to 74.28 dollars.

Its US equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery in July, rose 2.95% to 70.10 dollars.

“Oil prices rose at the start of the day on Thursday, changing the situation” compared to the sessions at the start of the week, during which WTI and Brent fell by around 7%, comments Ricardo Evangelista, analyst at ActivTrades.

“The price gains result from a return of optimism in the markets, following the adoption by Congress of the law on the ceiling of the American debt”, explains the analyst.

The elected representatives of the House of Representatives adopted on Wednesday by a very large majority the text aimed at raising the debt ceiling. The bill must now be passed by the Senate.

Until now the market “discounted in prices the possibility of default. Now that’s unlikely, brokers are coming back into the market,” summarized Phil Flynn of Prices Futures Group.

Prices remained on an upward trend despite the publication of an unexpected increase in weekly US commercial inventories by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA).

These reserves increased by 4.5 million barrels while analysts saw them fall by 1.5 million.

However, as Phil Flynn points out, the average demand for crude but also gasoline and kerosene over four weeks in the United States – an indicator closely followed by operators – remained higher than that of the year. last at the same time.

“The supply is therefore really narrow and demand is holding up”, which is favorable to the rebound in prices, added the analyst from Price Futures Group.

Another major event for the oil markets, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC+) are meeting on Sunday in Vienna, the headquarters of the alliance, for a possible adjustment of their level of production.

While analysts are leaning towards a wait-and-see approach with the current level maintained, the likelihood of a tightening increases however as prices fall.

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