Oil recovers, supply fears mount

Around 11:30 a.m., Brent took 2.99% to 105.52 dollars. WTI rose 3.05% to $102.80.

Oil prices rebounded Wednesday, after two sessions of decline, boosted by fears about the tightening of crude oil supply, neutralizing concerns about demand for the moment.

Around 09:30 GMT (11:30 CET), a barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in July took 2.99% to 105.52 dollars.

A barrel of US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for June delivery rose 3.05% to $102.80.

“The market is trying to assess the pressures” contrary to oil prices, says Victoria Scholar, analyst for Interactive investor.

On the one hand, “containments in China, the strengthening of the American dollar and the growing risk of global recession, compared to the consequences of the war in Ukraine” are pulling prices down, lists the analyst.

A strong dollar indeed weighs on the price of crude, since it weakens the purchasing power of investors using other currencies.

On the other side, these bearish factors collide “with the consequences of the war in Ukraine, in particular the prospect of a ban on Russian oil by the European Union and the restrictive effect this would have on the availability” of hydrocarbons , pushing prices up, continues Ms. Scholar.

The EU is struggling to agree on a full embargo on Russian oil. The project is notably blocked by Budapest.

“Efforts are hampered by internal disagreements. The proposal must be supported unanimously by the 27 countries of the EU, but the members who are heavily dependent on Russian energy are not playing the game, ”assures Stephen Brennock, analyst at PVM Energy.

Fears over the reliability of Russian hydrocarbon supplies have resumed with renewed vigor, with the volume of Russian gas transiting through Ukraine appearing to be down on Wednesday as fighting in the east of the country with the Russian army prevents according to Kyiv the proper functioning of gas infrastructure.

“Inflation data for April” and weekly figures from the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) on commercial crude inventories from the US, the world’s largest consumer, will also be the focus of the attention of investors”, points out Stephen Brennock.

For the past week, analysts expect crude inventories to have fallen by 1.45 million barrels, according to the median consensus compiled by Bloomberg.

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