Old Farmer’s Almanac 2026 Fall Forecast: When Will Your State Cool Off?

As summer draws to a close, millions of Americans are eager to know when the sweltering heat will finally break and give way to crisp autumn conditions. According to the Old Farmer’s Almanac 2026 fall forecast, the upcoming season is shaping up to be a period of dramatic transitions across the United States. While autumn officially arrives with the fall equinox on September 22, 2026, relief from the heat won’t hit every state at the same time, bringing a patchwork of lingering summer warmth and sudden cold fronts.

The overarching pattern for Fall 2026 features a warm interior wrapped in cooler weather across the edges of the country. Forecasters indicate that warmer-than-average weather will settle over the nation’s interior during September and October—stretching from the Northern Plains through the Heartland and down into the Deep South. Conversely, most of the eastern United States and the Pacific Coast are expected to experience cooler-than-average temperatures.

When it comes to rainfall, the season is anticipated to be drier than average across a majority of the country. However, above-average rainfall is expected along the West Coast, through the central and northern Rockies, in parts of Texas, and in localized pockets of southern Florida and the Northeast, according to seasonal predictions.

Regional Temperature and Rainfall Breakdowns

Different corners of the country will see vastly different timelines for their seasonal cool-down. In the Northeast, residents can expect cooler and wetter conditions than usual, with below-average temperatures and an uptick in precipitation. Along the Atlantic Corridor, September and October temperatures are projected to hover about 1°F below normal, accompanied by roughly 1 inch less rainfall than usual, as reported by Almanac.com. Meanwhile, the Appalachians will see September temperatures average 2°F below normal alongside below-average precipitation.

Photo: farmersalmanac.com

Photo: almanac.com

Farther south, the Southeast will hang on to summer-like warmth longer than most other regions. According to Farmers’ Almanac, the substantial cool-down for the Southeast will hold off until November, making for a slower transition into traditional autumn weather. September and October are expected to average 1°F below normal in temperature, though northern areas could see about 2 inches less rainfall than average, and southern portions may receive up to 4 inches less than normal rainfall.

In the Midwest and Great Lakes, the shift will happen much faster. The North Central states and the Great Lakes region are slated to lead the charge into colder, more winter-like conditions, experiencing some of the earliest and most persistent chilly weather of the season. By mid-October, these areas could see the first hints of winter, with potential snow in higher elevations.

Precipitation Shifts and What to Expect by November

While the early weeks of September will feature extended stretches of dry or fair weather for parts of the country—such as the Southwest and the North Central states—that quiet pattern is not built to last. As November approaches, precipitation will become a much bigger part of the daily weather story.

Rain and storm systems are expected to become increasingly frequent and widespread as Thanksgiving nears, producing a notably wetter pattern across much of the United States. Northern areas will experience the most pronounced transformation, shifting rapidly from the relatively warm and dry conditions of early autumn toward a colder, wetter, and increasingly winter-like environment.

As communities look ahead to changing leaves and heavier wardrobes, residents in the interior plains and the Deep South will need to exercise patience as summer-like warmth lingers well into October, while northern and eastern states pull out their sweaters much earlier in the season. Share your thoughts on this year’s seasonal outlook in the comments below.