2023-10-07 03:00:08
LPlanning has something to do with scarcity. In an economy damaged by the war, it was the shortage of productive resources which led to the implementation of the Plan, and it was the newfound abundance which gradually led to its abandonment. Today it is the scarcity of natural resources – climate, biodiversity, water – which motivates the rebirth of the planning approach. We have entered a new economy of scarcity.
Economists have long believed that the response to the climate challenge lies solely in carbon pricing. And it is true that this would guarantee economic efficiency. But, without even talking about political feasibility, carbon taxation is not enough to guide collective effort. Programming the tightening of bans on the rental of thermal sieves or banning the marketing of thermal vehicles from 2035 means signaling, better than by announcing a future price trajectory, the extent of the transformation that we must engage.
Little by little, the contours of ecological planning are emerging. Specific targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 were thus set, sector by sector, in line with the target of climate neutrality by 2050 (“ Act better: ecological planning », September 2023). For example, we now know that the government intends to increase the share of main residences heated with oil from 11% in 2021 to 3.6% in 2030, that it aims at the same time to increase carpooling trips tenfold or even that he wants to reverse the trend of decline in the modal share of rail freight to increase it from 10% today to 18% in 2030.
An ecology of supply
Stating such objectives is important, because it indicates where effort should be focused and makes the government accountable for the gaps between ambitions and results. But this is not enough. “Act better” is, first of all, a consultation document, which must still be translated into legislative or regulatory texts to have commitment value. Although measures have been taken and funding announced, the identification of public policies that will produce the expected results still remains incomplete. Past decarbonization strategies have too often relied on the performative power of words.
Finally, the programming of associated resources is missing, beyond the year 2024. Ten billion euros of commitment authorizations, including around 8 billion for the climate, this is obviously an unprecedented effort, all the more so remarkable that it comes in a tense budgetary context. But it is an effort that will have to be extended and amplified to reach the approximately 34 billion euros in public credits required to finance the transition.
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