Two faces of demarcation progress
Parallel to the renewed negotiations, US State Department spokesman Ned Price made a statement on the border demarcation file, indicating progress made in the discussion sessions held by the US envoy for global energy security, Amos Hochstein, with Israeli negotiators.
The American spokesman considered that the progress that has been achieved entails other meetings in the coming days and weeks. Undoubtedly a positive position, but it also involves several faces: Either it is a serious reflection of the pursuit of a solution, and thus the intention of the various parties to achieve an agreement and end the file. Or his goal is to procrastinate and prevent escalation, and to mortgage the file to new rounds of negotiations in the coming days and weeks. Knowing that Israel is able to extract gas within weeks, to try to export it to Europe at the beginning of winter.
Between Bousaab, Haniyeh and Qaani
The US position elicited a positive Lebanese response, which was expressed by the Deputy Speaker of Parliament, Elias Bou Saab, who received the administration of the file on the authority of President Michel Aoun. Bou Saab considered that the US statements are positive, and “we appreciate the US administration’s pledge to communicate in the coming days, and we hope that it will lead to the resumption of indirect negotiations in Naqoura.”
In this context, follow-up sources indicate that Bou Saab received a call from Hochstein on Tuesday, during which they reviewed the latest developments, and discussed the possibility of resuming negotiations soon, when Hochstein could set a clear context for the negotiation mechanism that is supposed to lead to a solution and avoid the dispute.
Lebanon is betting on some progress in the regional negotiations, and its reflection will be calm on the Lebanese reality, and political satisfaction that includes other files. But in addition to the efforts to calm down, everyone is sticking to the work of collecting his cards. Hezbollah’s positions, in conjunction with Ismail Haniyeh’s visit to Lebanon and the holding of the Islamic National Conference in Beirut, indicate the gathering of allies and the adoption of a unified position.
According to some information, Haniyeh’s visit to Lebanon was preceded by a visit by Quds Force Commander Ismail Qaani, which focused on the developments in the region, and on thinking about the possibility of very remote options, even if this led to the outbreak of a confrontation to protect the Lebanese borders and Lebanon’s wealth, and to prevent Israel from extracting oil.
Between Russia and Israel
According to information, Russia discussed with the Iranians the issue of preventing Israel from extracting oil and exporting it to Europe from the Mediterranean, specifically from now until next winter. This coincided with Nasrallah’s escalation and his threat to strike the Greek ship, if it continues to extract without Lebanon starting its exploration work.
After these positions and developments, came the positions of the Israeli military officials who threatened to destroy Lebanon or carry out an invasion. This means that this kind of raising the ceilings came within the framework of the exchange of media and verbal positions, and a translation of a kind of security moves by the two parties.
nuclear deal
Lebanon awaits the results of the Doha negotiations, and the understandings it can achieve. The Iranians confirm that they want to go to an agreement, and that high hopes are placed on the negotiations in Qatar, to reach an agreement. The Iranians also assert that sooner or later they will sign the agreement. It is estimated that he will be with the administration of Joe Biden. In the event of signing, the matter will have a positive impact on the general situation in Lebanon. Without the grand bargain, all the files remain included in the details, from the consultations to form the government to others.
All Lebanese matters remain related to an agreement that will reflect regionally on the Saudi-Iranian reality, which is supposed to reproduce a Lebanese settlement that launches a new presidential term and the formation of a government with balances that satisfy the various parties.