One Nation has acknowledged that its proposed immigration cap of 130,000 would apply to the net annual migrant intake, a clarification that would allow tens of thousands more arrivals than initial party statements suggested, even as leader Pauline Hanson launched a separate bid to slash the federal tobacco excise by 75 per cent.
For months, political opponents and policy experts have scrutinized One Nation’s framework for reducing overall migrant numbers, a core focus that has bolstered the minor party’s popularity. Under its existing online policy platform, the party stated it would cut migration by capping visas at 130,000 per year to relieve housing and infrastructure pressures, without initially specifying which visa categories were included.
Australia’s immigration system incorporates multiple streams, including temporary student, working holiday, and short-term skilled visas, alongside approximately 185,000 annual permanent visas distributed across skilled migration, family reunions, and humanitarian programs. Because thousands of individuals depart the country annually, applying a hard cap of 130,000 total visas would theoretically result in zero or negative net overseas migration.
Clarifying the party’s stance on Monday, Barnaby Joyce told reporters that the 130,000 figure applied specifically to the net intake rather than the total volume of visas issued. The statement followed media appearances over the weekend in which Hanson used overlapping terminology, telling a Sunday morning program on News24 that she sought net migration of about 130,000 before later describing the figure as the permanent number of people present in the country.
While One Nation remains the political party most trusted by Australians to manage immigration according to the Resolve Political Monitor, the party’s platform has not yet addressed the workforce ramifications deep migration cuts would impose on regional economies and key industries.
Tobacco Excise and Illicit Market Pressures
Simultaneously, Hanson released a new policy on Tuesday pledging to reduce the federal tobacco excise by 75 per cent and freeze indexation for an additional three years. The intervention aims to lower legal retail cigarette prices to compete more closely with the black market.
Federal excise currently constitutes between 70 and 75 per cent of the cost of legal tobacco products in Australia, with rates increasing twice annually based on the Average Weekly Ordinary Time Earnings index. Legal packs of 20 cigarettes now average more than A$40, while illicit alternatives frequently sell for A$12 or less. Experimental wastewater data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics indicated that illicit products accounted for roughly 80 per cent of total nicotine consumption in 2025, up sharply from 12 per cent in 2017.
New South Wales Premier Chris Minns has previously noted that police intelligence links a wave of recent crime to lucrative control of the illicit tobacco trade. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has maintained that the federal government is executing its strongest enforcement actions ever against the illicit trade, and Labor has resisted widespread calls from various officials and industry experts to reduce the excise tax.
One Nation’s uncosted tobacco policy seeks to undercut organized criminal profit margins by making legal alternatives affordable once more. Party representatives have not provided additional comment regarding the timeline for legislative introduction as parliament resumes its schedule.
