One Nation MP David Farley has conceded that his party’s long-term immigration targets are not “too different” from the federal government’s, acknowledging a raw intake projection close to Labor’s forecast of 225,000 by 2028.
Untangling One Nation’s Migration Numbers
For months, Pauline Hanson’s party has surged in popularity by campaigning on a fiercely populist platform of slashing Australia’s immigration numbers. Yet during an appearance on ABC Insiders, Mr Farley pulled back the curtain on the party’s actual arithmetic, admitting that a One Nation government would still target an overall migration rate of about 230,000 people annually, according to reporting by ABC News.
That figure is built on a net overseas migration (NOM) rate baseline of roughly 130,000, combined with “a minimum” of 100,000 skilled and targeted workers under established visa streams. When those categories merge, the resulting migration volume matches the trajectory already anticipated by the government.
“The raw number is not too different, but the reality is where do we need them,” Mr Farley said, as reported by ABC News. “We don’t need them in the great urban ‘metroplex’. We need them out to be productive, working out in agriculture, engineering, mining, etc.”
Where the Policy Diverges
While the aggregate volume may look familiar, One Nation insists the distribution and composition of that intake would look entirely different. The party’s blueprint carves out space for approximately 40,000 workers under the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility scheme, alongside 68,000 to 70,000 migrants filling critical gaps in aged care, mechanical trades, and engineering.
At the same time, One Nation has signaled an intent to restrict arrivals from countries deemed to carry higher security or integration risks. The party has floated using official government travel advisories to dynamically shape where its visa holders originate.
This approach runs parallel to shifting strategies across the political spectrum. The Coalition has been actively constructing a counter-policy that ties annual migration caps directly to the previous year’s housing construction rates, attempting to neutralize the housing supply deficit.
Meanwhile, the federal government has wrestled with its own targets. Although cabinet has weighed further temporary visa tightening to drag net overseas migration down from 300,000 toward its 225,000 goal, key reform packages have faced administrative delays.
Industry Anxiety Over a Race to the Bottom
As the major parties and insurgent right-wing voices compete over who can promise the most disciplined border figures, corporate Australia is sounding the alarm. Business groups warn that a purely political contest over lower numbers risks fracturing industries that depend heavily on overseas talent.
The Australian Industry Group stressed that skilled migration remains essential for stabilizing workforce shortages across health, advanced manufacturing, infrastructure, and housing construction. Industry leaders are urging policy stability to prevent a chaotic race to the bottom that leaves vital sectors starved of labor.
As the immigration debate intensifies ahead of the electoral cycle, voters are left to weigh populist rhetoric against the pragmatic reality of numerical convergence. Do you think shifting the geographic focus of migrants can solve regional labor shortages without altering total intake numbers? Share your thoughts below.
