The United Nations Security Council voted 11-0 on Wednesday to extend the mandate of the UN Peacekeeping Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) for another six months, but the decision came as diplomats privately acknowledged a widening gap between the military achievements of Operation Epic Fury and the fragile state of peace negotiations in eastern Congo.
The vote, which included abstentions from Russia and China, followed a closed-door briefing by UN Secretary-General António Guterres, who told council members that while the military campaign—launched in late October to dismantle the last major armed group strongholds in North Kivu—had “significantly degraded the operational capacity” of rebel factions, it had not translated into a political settlement. A senior UN official, speaking on condition of anonymity, described the current environment as “a stalemate with no clear off-ramp.”
Operation Epic Fury, a joint effort involving MONUSCO, the Congolese Armed Forces (FARDC), and regional allies from the East African Community, achieved its primary objective of clearing rebel-held territory in the Masisi and Rutshuru districts. Satellite imagery and ground reports confirmed the dismantling of at least three major command centers belonging to the March 23 Movement (M23) and Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), though sporadic clashes persist along the Rwanda border. The Congolese government declared the operation a success, with President Félix Tshisekedi announcing in a nationally televised address that “the military phase is complete,” though he stopped short of claiming victory.
Yet the absence of a negotiated ceasefire or power-sharing deal has left diplomats scrambling. The African Union’s Special Envoy for the Great Lakes Region, former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, who mediated an earlier failed truce in 2020, told reporters in Nairobi that “the military solution alone cannot deliver lasting peace.” His remarks echoed warnings from the International Crisis Group, which noted in a recent report that “the Congolese government’s refusal to engage with M23’s political demands—including autonomy for North Kivu—has created a vacuum now filled by regional spoilers.”
Behind closed doors, Western diplomats have expressed frustration with Kinshasa’s unwillingness to compromise, particularly over the status of the M23’s political wing, which remains active despite the military campaign. A European Union official, who requested anonymity, stated that “the Congolese government’s public rhetoric about ‘total victory’ is undermining trust with the very groups they need to bring to the table.” The EU has signaled it will withhold planned aid packages unless progress is made on political talks, a stance that has complicated relations with the Tshisekedi administration.
Rwanda, widely accused of supporting M23, has denied any involvement but has intensified its own military operations in Congolese territory, raising tensions. In a statement issued by the Rwandan Ministry of Defense on Tuesday, officials claimed their forces were “targeting ADF safe havens” near the border, a move that MONUSCO has not publicly endorsed. The UN’s Group of Experts on the DRC, in a confidential briefing to the Security Council last month, flagged “credible reports” of Rwandan cross-border raids, though no direct evidence of state involvement in M23’s resurgence has been made public.
The next critical juncture is scheduled for next week, when the Congolese government and M23’s political representatives are set to meet in Uganda under the auspices of the East African Community. However, preliminary discussions have already revealed deep divisions over whether the talks will address territorial concessions or focus solely on demobilization. A Congolese government spokesperson dismissed the possibility of autonomy talks, stating that “any negotiation must begin with the disarmament of all armed groups,” a position that M23 has rejected as a precondition.
In the meantime, humanitarian agencies are warning of a deepening crisis. The UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported this week that over 1.2 million people have been displaced since the start of the military campaign, with access to affected areas severely restricted. Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) suspended operations in Rutshuru after its staff were detained by Congolese soldiers, raising concerns about the protection of civilians in the region.
The Security Council’s extension of MONUSCO’s mandate includes a provision for a “strategic review” by March 2025, a delay that reflects the council’s recognition of the mission’s limited leverage. With no clear path to a political resolution and military gains at risk of reversal, the focus now shifts to whether the Congolese government—or its regional and international partners—can force a compromise before the next round of violence resumes.
