Ukraine is gradually losing the four-year-old conflict against Russia and has a window of several months to make key decisions to turn the tide, according to Mykhailo Fedorov, the country’s ousted defense minister. Fedorov, a 35-year-old reformer whose dismissal last month sparked weeks of protests (Defense News), stated that the country lacked an overall vision to win the war, was hobbled by a failure to innovate, and suffered from ingrained corruption, patronage networks, and a lack of political independence in government institutions.
Ousted Defense Minister Warns Ukraine Is Slowly Losing War
Fedorov noted in an interview that Ukraine was slowly losing in a marked departure from Kyiv’s official rhetoric. In response to the comments, Ukraine’s presidential office stated that Fedorov had been positive about the conduct of the war while he was at the ministry and that only his personal status had changed. Following his dismissal, Fedorov called for an election, which was met with dismay (Defense News) and rejected by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who argued it could destroy Ukraine as it fights off Russia (Defense News).
Battlefield Realities and Air Defense Shortages
The conflict continues to exact a heavy toll on the frontline and civilian infrastructure. Russia has hammered Ukrainian factories and warehouses with dozens of ballistic missiles a month, which Ukraine is mostly unable to intercept as Patriot air-defense missiles and other interceptors run low. Deliveries of Patriot missiles from Western allies have declined over the past three years even as Russian strikes intensified, according to Zelenskyy.
While Russia is gaining less ground than it did the previous year, it continues to crawl forward in the Donbas, where sparse frontline infantry dugouts are manned mostly by unmotivated conscripts. In response, Ukraine has ramped up its own drone and missile attacks deep into Russian territory, hitting key military factories, causing serious damage to oil refineries, and creating nationwide fuel shortages. Despite these pressures, a poll conducted at the end of July found that 82% of Ukrainians believed Ukraine would win, with most expecting the fighting to continue into 2027 or later.
Budget Disputes and Technological Strategy
Political friction has also emerged over defense spending and administrative decisions. Zelenskyy stated that actions taken by Fedorov were misguided and publicly detailed their disputes, mentioning that spending decisions earlier in the year brought forward funds earmarked for the second half of 2026 (AP News, Defense News). Zelenskyy stated that this front-loading left a $27 billion budget shortfall for which donor-dependent Ukraine does not have a solution (Defense News).
Fedorov rejected the $27 billion figure, stating that his ministry devised a spending plan relying on savings from new procurement tenders and international support (Defense News). Fedorov alleged that when he arrived at the ministry, department heads had been appointed at the behest of defense companies to lobby for their interests, and maintained that under his planning the end-of-year budget deficit would have been around five billion dollars (Defense News).
Fedorov also outlined a technological strategy for the front line, advocating for an area covered by electronic sensors to detect enemies, paired with land and air drones to minimize human presence. While Ukrainian manufacturers are already working on these technologies, Fedorov emphasized that the country requires a joined-up strategy to maximize their deployment effectiveness.
