South Africa’s car insurance premiums could face upward pressure as a result of the escalating conflict in Iran, according to OUTsurance Group CEO Marthinus Visser. The warning, issued on March 11, 2026, suggests the downward trend in car premium inflation experienced in recent periods may be reversed, though the full impact is expected to take time to materialize.
Visser’s assessment comes amid growing global economic concerns stemming from the war, which is already disrupting trade routes and driving up energy prices. The conflict has pushed Brent crude oil above $86 a barrel in recent days, according to economist Dr. Azar Jammine, speaking at the AfriSam Budget Breakdown. This increase in oil prices is expected to negatively impact South Africa’s inflation rate, potentially preventing the country from reaching its hoped-for target of 3%.
The disruption to global supply chains, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz – a critical chokepoint for oil and liquefied natural gas supplies – is a key driver of these concerns. Roughly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, as well as around half of the world’s seaborne sulphur trade, pass through the Strait. Limited flights at the Dubai International Airport, the world’s busiest airport by international passenger traffic, further exacerbate the logistical challenges.
While the immediate impact on South Africa is expected to be higher fuel prices and increased inflation, the conflict also presents a potential windfall for the country’s mining sector. The surge in precious-metal prices, driven by the geopolitical risk premium associated with the war, could benefit South African miners despite the broader trade disruptions.
South Africa’s historical ties with Iran, including support for sanctions against apartheid following the 1979 revolution and Iran’s subsequent admission to the BRICS Forum in 2023, have been a source of tension with Western nations. President Cyril Ramaphosa has publicly criticized the US/Israel attack on Iran, citing violations of international law and calling for intensified diplomacy. South Africa has consistently voted against, or abstained from, UN resolutions condemning Iran’s human rights record.
Trade between South Africa and Iran remains limited, more than a decade after Pretoria halted crude oil imports from the Middle Eastern country. Despite these historical political ties, the current state of bilateral trade remains constrained. The South African government has consistently defended Iran at the United Nations, a position that has reach at a cost to its relations with the West.
The South African Reserve Bank has indicated that, as a consequence of the global economic pressures, interest rates are unlikely to decrease and may even increase. No further cuts to the repo rate are currently anticipated.
