2023-06-02 10:18:20
The Paris Stock Exchange is up for the second session in a row, and in a good way, investors welcoming both the green light from Congress to the suspension of the American debt ceiling and the declarations of Fed officials in favor of a pause in the rate hike cycle. The official report on employment in May, this afternoon, in the United States could, however, invalidate or confirm this position.
Mid-session, the Cac 40 climbed 1.24% to 7,225.81 points in an apathetic business volume of barely 700 million euros. The contracts futures on American indices gained around 0.5%. On Thursday night, the S&P 500 closed at a nine-month high.
Return “to the data and the fundamentals”
The US Senate approved Thursday evening, by 63 votes against 36, the bill providing for the suspension of the debt ceiling until January 1, 2025. The text, already voted by the House of Representatives on Wednesday, must now only to be signed by Joe Biden to have the force of law. This vote definitively removes the risk of a payment default by the federal government, which would have been catastrophic for the American economy, and even for the world. ” We can start to move forward and focus on the other important things… What matters, at the end of the day, is the data and the fundamentals “Summarizes Georgios Leontaris, of HSBC Global Private Banking.
The market is therefore turning its attention to the next monetary decision by the US Federal Reserve, scheduled in two weeks. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said on Thursday that “ now is the time to at least hit the stop button during a meeting and see how things go “. James Bullard, his colleague at the St. Louis branch, believes interest rates are at the low end of what should be a tight enough policy to fight inflation. The probability of an interest rate hike on June 14 is now valued by the market at 27.3%, up from 64.2% a week ago, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
The US labor market remains tight
But a possible break will largely depend on employment statistics in the non-agricultural sector in the United States, and in particular on the evolution of wages. Published Thursday, the ADP Employer Services survey identified 278,000 job creations in the private sector, significantly more than the 170,000 anticipated, reflecting the continued strength of the labor market. Moreover, the employment component of the ISM manufacturing index reached a 9-month high of 51.4 points in May.
The consensus formed by Bloomberg expects 195,000 job creations in May after 253,000 in April and an increase of 0.1 point in the unemployment rate to 3.5%. The average hourly wage should have increased by 0.3% over one month after +0.5% in April, while, over one year, the increase should have stabilized at 4.4%. ” Less job creation, slower wage growth and a rising unemployment rate, ideally accompanied by a higher participation rate, is what the Federal Reserve needs to pause the hikes. rates. But the easing in the US labor market has yet to materialize », observe Ipek Ozkardeskaya, de Swissquote.
Luxury and major industrial companies in sight
LVMH fell 2.5% in the wake of a rebound of more than 4% in the Hang Seng of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this morning.
Also sensitive to the Chinese economy, ArcelorMittal appreciated by 2.1%, supported by the rise in metal prices in London, while TotalEnergies takes 2.5% in the image of Brent prices. Vallourec s’octroie 6,1%.
Recently neglected, manufacturers like Saint-Gobain, Renault or Faurecia take up 2.4%, 4.3% and 5.2% respectively. Alstom rises for its part by 2.5%. The railway equipment manufacturer has announced the signing of a contract for the delivery of 130 electric trams in the United States for a value of more than 667 million euros.
Sensitive to changes in interest rates, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield advance of 4.2%.
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