“Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan” Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan has become another uncertain bomb in the financial market |

US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, the smell of smoke in the Taiwan Strait has risen, and the Chinese authorities’ fierce and belligerent response has become another uncertain bomb in the financial market. U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds, some capital flowsJapanese Yenas a hedge.

Pelosi is the highest-ranking U.S. political figure to have visited Taiwan since 1997, 25 years after the last House Speaker visited Taiwan by Republican Newt Gingrich.

Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan has caused a treacherous political situation in the United States, China and Taiwan, and has also affected the economies of the United States, China and Taiwan. China has imposed waves of sanctions on Taiwan, banning the import of products from more than 100 Taiwanese food factories, suspending the export of natural sand to Taiwan, disrupting Taiwan with multiple military planes, and attacking the official website of the Taiwan government on the Internet. At 12:00 on the 7th, a military exercise was launched around Taiwan, which was equivalent to a three-day blockade of Taiwan’s sea and airspace.

The US and Chinese heads of state have avoided remarks that may escalate the situation in the Taiwan Strait in recent phone calls and talks, and the White House has been downplaying the impact of Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. White House National Security Council strategic communications coordinator John Kirby said on Tuesday that President Biden made it clear that Congress is an independent branch of the U.S. government and that Speaker Pelosi, like other members of Congress, can make their own decisions about their overseas travel. Everything has been explained.

The White House also reminded China that “there is a precedent for the Speaker of the House of Representatives to visit Taiwan, and Beijing must not overreact.” While the rhetoric between the U.S. and China is growing, and few see the dispute as turning into a full-blown crisis, Axios analyst Matt Phillips noted that with China’s economy in a slump, Beijing appears to be taking advantage of Pelosi’s Visit to incite nationalist sentiment.

Greg Valliere, a U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments, said that Asian stocks were the first to be nervous. Because of concerns that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army might bomb Pelosi’s special plane, any side’s missteps were very serious, prompting Asian stocks to dive lower the previous day. .

Valliere said intelligence experts believe Chinese leader Xi Jinping needs to divert attention from China’s struggling economy and try to recover from the removal of lockdown measures. At the same time, Xi, who is looking forward to an unprecedented third term later this fall, cannot look weak.

Valliere also mentioned that Beijing sees democracy in Taiwan as a threat, and Taiwan is widely regarded as the most democratic place in East Asia, and Pelosi’s visit will have a major impact, leading to further deterioration of US-China relations.

The website flightradar24.com found that Pelosi took off from Malaysia’s Subang airport to Taiwan and was viewed by more than 500,000 people, surpassing the previous record of 140,000 people signed by Argentina’s Lionel Messi when he flew to France last year.

Ben Emons, managing director of global macro strategy at Medley global Advisors, said that investors have been tracking Pelosi’s movements on the flight tracker website on Tuesday, and risk aversion once pushed down U.S. Treasury yields on Tuesday. The volatility has been described as a result of the “Pelosi chaos”.

Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan will significantly increase US-China tensions (Image: AFP)

A team of analysts at the Eurasia Group, including Neil Thomas, believes that Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan will significantly increase U.S.-China tensions, but is unlikely to provoke an overreaction from China that could spark a conflict.

The Eurasia Group sees a 25% chance of a major cross-strait security crisis, and the Beijing authorities may order more military exercises, possibly sanction the U.S. delegation and freeze bilateral exchanges, and may consider boycotts and sanctions against Taiwan and U.S. companies. Sanctions.

Analysts are divided on the odds of whether China will launch an invasion of Taiwan, but a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, whatever the outcome, could freeze financial assets and cut off most of the economy and finance, said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics. connect. Moreover, if the United States comes to aid Taiwan, the two superpowers of the United States and China will be in a state of war.

Shi Yinhong, a professor at the Department of International Politics at Renmin University of China, said Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan prompted a sharp freeze in U.S.-China relations. The two countries’ economic rivals are at odds over a range of issues, and China has so far shown relative restraint, with the prospect of a full-scale armed conflict low.

Shi Yinhong said that after Pelosi leaves Taiwan, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army will conduct live-fire exercises around Taiwan, and China may try to block Taiwan by sea and air and punish the United States economically. Taiwan is a major manufacturing location for wafer foundries, and using PLA Navy ships to prevent other ships from entering and leaving Taiwan would be very disruptive just to keep the US from getting chips for a week or two.


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