February 15,new HopeAccording to the disclosure of live pig sales, in January this year, the company sold 1,292,600 live pigs, an increase of 20.62% and 76.61% month-on-month and year-on-year respectively; the sales revenue of live pigs was 1.638 billion yuan, an increase of 6.78% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 34.66%. The company stated that the main reason for the large year-on-year increase in the number of live pig sales was the normal release of production capacity.
So far, the results of most A-share pig raising companies in January 2022 have been released. On the whole, entering 2022, the pig production capacity of pig enterprises will continue to be released, and the sales volume of pigs will increase month-on-month. From the point of view of the sales price of commercial pigs, although the Spring Festival is approaching, pig prices still declined in January.
Shanghai Steel Unionagricultural productsDivision Live PigsanalystGuo Dandan accepts “securitiesIn an interview, a reporter from the Daily said that it is expected that the supply of live pigs will continue to be released before May 2022, so the price of pigs will fluctuate and fall, and the low point may appear around April. . “Considering that the listed companies are expanding production and gradually making up for the elimination, the total number of sows that can reproduce is still guaranteed, so there is limited room for pig prices to rise, and it may be difficult to enter the next pig cycle in 2022.”
The price of commercial pigs fell month-on-month in January
Entering 2022, under the background of the continuous release of live pig production capacity, the sales of live pigs of A-share pig enterprises in January showed an overall growth trend.Zhengbang TechnologyIn January, the sales of live pigs increased by 19.07% month-on-month and 21.86% year-on-year;Tianbang sharesCommercial pig sales in January increased by 3.7% month-on-month;Wen’s sharesThe number of meat pigs (including wooly pigs and fresh products) sold increased by 22.75% month-on-month and 50.01% year-on-year.
At the same time, pig prices fell in January despite the peak season for Chinese New Year pork consumption. The data disclosed by the above-mentioned pig raising enterprises shows that the average sales price of commercial pigs (or wool pigs) in January was in the range of 12.92 yuan/kg to 14.09 yuan/kg, a month-on-month decrease of more than 10.91%, and the highest drop reached 16.24%.
“Pig prices did not rise but fell before the Spring Festival. First, the number of slaughtered farms increased by about 10% month-on-month in January. At the same time, the Spring Festival holiday was in the month, and the slaughtering time of the farms was shortened, so the number of slaughtered slaughter per day increased; secondly, the weight of the farms decreased. For slaughtering, some breeding companies have advanced the planned volume in February, resulting in sufficient supply. Although demand is supported by the Spring Festival, the new crown pneumonia continues to ferment, which is bad for terminal consumption, supply and demand do not match, and pig prices are under pressure. “Guo Dandan told “securitiesDaily reporter analyzed.
Pig prices may continue to be under pressure in the first half of the year
Pig prices are expected to remain under pressure after a roller coaster-like volatility in 2021. Jiang Hanxiang, a senior researcher at Pangu Think TanksecuritiesA reporter from the Daily said that pork prices may show a trend of “first decline and then rebound” in 2022: “However, the extent of the rebound is still unknown. At least from the perspective of the cycle, the current large-scale investment is still not out of the way. The impact of a centralized listing after that.”new Hopein the most recentInstitutional researchZhong said that the company expects that pig prices will have “comparative pressure” in the first half of 2022, with a relatively low point from March to May, and a relative adjustment after that.
As a major pig-raising province, Sichuan Province will sell more than 63 million live pigs in 2021, ranking first in the country. Zeng Junlin, chief economist and press spokesman of the Sichuan Provincial Bureau of Statistics, once told the “Securities Daily” reporter that the goal of recovery of live pig production capacity has been completed ahead of schedule, and the supply of live pigs will increase between April and May 2022. It is a low season, so it is expected that after the Spring Festival this year and before the middle of the year, pork prices are “more likely to fall back.”
It is worth mentioning that on February 8, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that it will start the pork reserve purchase and storage work with relevant departments as appropriate. It is reported that many places have fired the “first shot” to stabilize pork prices in the Year of the Tiger. Sichuan has assigned a total of tens of thousands of tons of pork purchase and storage tasks, while Hubei Province has launched a new round of provincial-level temporary pork purchases and storage. What impact will this have on industries and companies in the down phase of the pig cycle?
Guo Dandan said: “The government’s purchase and storage has a relatively large impact on market sentiment and has a certain guiding effect on pig prices. However, the current number of purchases and storage is relatively small. After a short period of adjustment, pig prices still depend on the supply and demand side. The impact of storage is limited, and farms still need to reduce costs and increase efficiency to resist later risks.”
Jiang Han believes that the pork purchase and storage measures are, in a sense, just a move to stabilize pork prices. Through centralized purchase and storage, the fluctuation of pork prices can be stabilized, but it is impossible to completely change the development trend of pork prices as a whole. “For pig breeding enterprises, the government’s purchase and storage can help the development of enterprises to a certain extent, but the core is still to improve efficiency and reduce costs, to further reduce the pressure caused by excessive investment before, and to truly allow themselves to enter an effective environment. in the cycle of market development.”
(Article source: Securities Daily Network)