Poland: Russia cuts the gas tap

C’It was foreseeable since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, more than two months ago, that Russia was going to cut, at one time or another, the supply of gas intended for border countries or completely dependent on hydrocarbons from Moscow. Today, it is the turn of Bulgaria and Poland to bear the brunt, as collateral damage of a war that has taken hold over time, with an upsurge in hostilities between the Russians and the Westerners, which multiply the sanctions pushing the head of the Kremlin to react with extreme measures.

Indeed, the Gazprom group announced, on April 26, 2022, that it had suspended all its gas deliveries to Bulgaria and Poland. According to the Russian giant, these two countries would not have made a payment in rubles. The Bulgarian company Bulgargaz and the Polish company PGNiG affirmed the “suspension of gas deliveries from April 27 and until payment is made” in rubles. In this sense, the Polish company has confirmed “the complete cessation of the supply of natural gas provided by Gazprom under the Yamal contract”.

For Westerners, this is “blackmail”. For the Russians, it’s just a question of the shepherd’s response to the shepherdess, because, to a large extent, the Europeans expected such epidermal reactions from Vladimir Putin following all the punitive measures put in place. by the USA and the European Union against the Russian regime.

It must be said that on this level of hydrocarbons, the Russians can push the standoff as far as possible given that a large part of European territory depends on Russian gas for heating. Without forgetting that in the case of Poland, it was Warsaw that multiplied the outings castigating Vladimir Putin and his hostile attitudes throughout the region. Knowing the temperament of the boss of the Kremlin, the Poles should have expected a rise in blackmail from the Russian leaders who do not see at all a good eye the multiple exits of the Polish Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki.

The latter has just assured that his country will not give in “to this blackmail”, thanks to its sufficient gas reserves, adding that Poland “will no longer need Russian gas at all from the autumn”, estimating at the same time that the stoppage of deliveries constituted not only “a direct attack” on Poland, but also an attack on “the food security of the whole of Europe”. However, you should know that two-thirds of Polish gas is of Russian origin.

In the same logic, according to all observers, it seems very difficult for Europe to face Russia on this question of gas given that all European countries are dependent on Russian supplies. An inextricable equation for European countries. Moreover, the leaders of the European Union met on April 23, 2022, to study the possibility of buying gas together before the winter of 2023. In this sense, the boss of TotalEnergies clearly judges that “without gas Russia, we are shutting down part of the European economy”.

Par Abdelhak Najib