AFTER the 2024 elections, the Indonesian economy is in a relatively stable condition. Even though the hustle and bustle of the political year is not yet over before the regional elections in the fourth quarter, the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI) is optimistic that economic stability will be maintained.
“Referring to Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani’s statement just now, Indonesia’s economic growth projection reaches 5.17% in the first quarter of 2024. In fact, this positive projection was made in the midst of increasing global uncertainty,” said PSI DPP Chairman, Andre Vincent Wenas, in a press statement , Saturday, April 27 2024.
Even though it is relatively stable, turbulence is still possible. Considering the current global uncertainty characterized by the unfinished Russian-Ukrainian war, there is now tension between Iran and Israel. Not to mention international trade issues such as the TikTok issue in the United States.
“But if we look at the Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) which increased to level 54.2 last March. Then public consumption is reflected in the Consumer Confidence Index (IPK), which is stable at 123.8. “Then the level of public spending as measured by the Mandiri Spending Index (MSI) is maintained at level 46.9, so in general the consumer factor can be said to be quite good,” he said.
However, Andre said, it is necessary to pay attention to Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani’s warning that several factors are also experiencing correction. Both corrections due to seasonality such as Ramadan and holidays as well as corrections that are structural and long term. Although in the first quarter of this year the projection is similar to Bloomberg’s estimate of 5%, or Nomura’s 5.3% and Goldman Sachs’ projection of 4.9%.
“PSI is also paying attention to the 2024 APBN, which although still has a surplus of IDR 8.1 trillion (equivalent to 0.04% of national GDP), its position has decreased compared to the position at the beginning of the year when the surplus reached IDR 22.8 trillion (equivalent to 0.10% of national GDP). ),” he added.
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The decrease in surplus was due to a decrease in the realization of state revenue, namely IDR 620.01 trillion (equivalent to 22.1% of the APBN target). This figure is 4.1% lower than last year’s position (year on year).
Meanwhile, the realization of state spending has reached IDR 611.9 trillion, or the equivalent of 18.4% of the APBN. That value rose 18% from last year. The reason is front loading shopping, such as shopping for election purposes.
“The important thing is that we remain on the right track, economic growth remains at around 5%, and the political situation, although busy, is peaceful. “We will continue to maintain the nation’s political ethics regarding Indonesian Unity, that is what is important,” concluded Andre, closing his statement.
(Z-9)
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