It has been seven months since the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, which sparked global attention to how Vladimir Putin he got rid of a spineless friend of his. Oligarch Prigozhin had gained unlimited power from the freedom of movement the Kremlin had given him to run the mercenary organization but sealed his fate when he attempted to stage a coup and begin marching on Moscow to topple Putin.
A short time later, Prigozhin, and having previously returned to the camp of… Putin’s friends, he was found dying during the bombing of the aircraft carrying him. Now, seven months later his private army, known as the Wagner Group, is working as reported by the American magazine Politico to pursue the Kremlin’s agenda.
Wagner’s thousands of former forces have split into at least four groups, according to two U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence matters. By mixing the fighters with other mercenaries loyal to Putin, the Russian government hopes to prevent a repeat of last year’s events, when the united Wagner turned against Putin and his defense ministry.
“Part of the aim of the restructuring is to ensure that there is greater control of the business as a whole,” one of the US officials said. The new private armies are already deployed around the world on special missions, including in Ukraine and Africa, where they are expected to play a similar destabilizing role on the world stage as they did under Prigozhin, the officials said.
The regrouped paramilitary groups have already forced the Biden administration to withdraw troops from Niger and Chad – in major counter-terrorism setbacks – while challenging US policies in the Central African Republic, Mali, Burkina Faso, Libya and elsewhere. African nations.
One of the four groups is aligned with the National Guard of Russia. It has already been transferred to Ukraine and has lost a significant number of fighters. Two other groups operate under the control of the Ministry of Defense and Moscow’s intelligence services. The fourth group – known as Africa Corps and aligned with an existing group known as Redut – is still working to take control of Wagner’s former forces in some African capitals, the officials said.
Little else is known about the distribution of the new groups, including how many members come from Prigozhi’s Wagnern against other existing paramilitary organizations. It is also unclear to what extent Prigozhin’s son, who initially took control of thousands of Wagner’s mercenaries after his father’s death, is still involved in leading a smaller group of fighters still loyal to his father’s memory. The younger Prigozhin likely heads some forces in the Central African Republic and Mali, the officials said.
Prigozhin had made his fortune as Putin’s personal chef and official Kremlin caterer before creating the Wagner Group in 2017. Allowing a close Kremlin ally to create an unofficial private army has been useful for Russia in carrying out covert missions across the people.
However, as the Wagner Group expanded its global reach, it became increasingly independent of Russian control. Putin tolerated these changes as Wagner fighters assumed a major role in his war with Ukraine. In June last year, however, Prigozhin and his mercenaries turned on Putin over his defense ministry’s mishandling of the war.
This led to a series of skirmishes with Russian forces as Prigozhin’s men marched towards Moscow in an apparent coup attempt.
Prigozhin eventually resigned in a deal negotiated by Russia’s allies in Belarus. But within two months, Prigozhin was dead, along with nine others, when his plane disintegrated and crashed to earth while flying from St. Petersburg to Moscow.
Prigozhin’s death left the fate of his empire hanging in the balance. At the time, the Wagner Group was in the process of forging close ties with the leaders of African states, providing security for dictators while also engaging in lucrative mining ventures.
In the Central African Republic, for example, Wagner had taken control of a gold mine. In the wake of Prigozhin’s death, his former subordinates have greatly expanded the mine, US officials said, but have yet to find a way to effectively market and ship the minerals. They would make hundreds of millions of dollars in profits in the global market.
Moscow’s recently confirmed command of these private mercenaries has huge implications for geopolitics. In Africa in particular, it could undermine the Biden administration’s efforts to fight terrorism, promote democracy and forge diplomatic ties with fledgling regimes.
“The timing element is key here. Russia can give these countries what the US can’t, and immediately.” one of the US officials said, referring to Moscow’s ability to use private fighters to provide under-the-table weapons and ammunition to fledgling military governments in Africa. “And many of the leaders of these countries are tired of the US lecturing them about democracy.”
Moscow’s use of paramilitary fighters to extend its influence in Africa is already visible in Niger, one of the most important outposts in the war on terror.
Niger’s military leaders seized control from the country’s elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, last July. The coup prompted Washington to suspend economic and military aid to the country, while the Biden administration pressed military leaders to return to a civilian-led democracy.
Earlier this month, however, hundreds of Russian mercenaries arrived in the capital Niamey, claiming they were there to help train Niger’s military and to enter into formal cooperation with the ruling junta.
Their arrival came just days before the Biden administration announced the US would withdraw its 1,000 troops from the country after nearly 10 years, creating the impression that Russian forces are replacing US forces in a country where terrorist groups have organized and planned global attacks.
Even before his rebellion, Prigozhin often publicly condemned the defense ministry, blaming its leaders for battlefield failures in Ukraine. And his final break with Putin came when he tried to force the removal of Sergei Shoigu, the defense minister, and Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the military staff.
Prigozhin blamed the duo for the poor performance of the Russian troops. He also claimed that they had exaggerated the largely bogus threat posed by Ukraine to push Putin into a reckless war.
Many of Wagner’s fighters remained loyal to Prigozhin’s memory and similarly disliked the defense minister. Now, some of them are led by that very official – Shoigu – in a highly selective group known as Patriot. It is overseen and funded by the Department of Defense, officials say.
“It’s unclear whether Moscow will be able to pull off what Wagner has been doing for years,” said a third US official. “These fighters go into an existing, bureaucratic system that can slow things down and make them less dangerous.”
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