2023-07-01 22:00:00
After the closing of the lists where the pre-candidates for each space were defined, two pollsters measured their electoral potential for the primaries. In the dispute for the stage of thirds, there is an advantage of Together for Change. According to one of the consultants, the figure of Javier Miley showed a drop of five points compared to May.
The cards are already cast. After months of speculation about supposed nominations (some of them collapsed in the end), the leaders who will seek a place in the Casa Rosada will have their first major electoral duel on August 13 when the Open, Simultaneous and Mandatory Primaries are voted on ( PASSED).
It is because of that CB Consultant y Closed They began to collect the first data with consultations with public opinion and collected perceptions of the most preponderant figures at the national level. According to the first work, there is an advantage of Juntos por el Cambio over Unión por la Patria, with La Libertad Avanza completing the podium. In the second, the arrangement is the same, although with a more comfortable superiority of the cambiemite space.
The Nolan test: Massa, Larreta and Bullrich
JxC leads panperonism and Milei is below 20%
According to CB, by director Cristian Buttié, the armed cambiemite adds 33.8% of voting intentions, a cushion of consent that places it in first place.
Further behind were Unión por la Patria (29.1%) and the libertarians led by Javier Milei (17.2%).
However, the most seductive data appears when you measure the candidates competing against each other. In the case of JxC, who would lead the space in the first round of October would be the formula Patricia Bullrich-Luis Petri (17.3%), prevailing against Horacio Rodríguez Larreta-Gerardo Morales (16,5%).
In the ruling party, the dispute is more uneven. There they are imposed Sergio Massa and Agustín Rossi (24.1%) against the 5% of Juan Grabois and Paula Abal Medina. In this case, the Minister of Economy was supported by the majority of the space for his candidacy, something that was not accepted by the social leader who maintained his position to compete.
According to Opinaia, the percentage of Milei fell in June
The post-closing poll of the consulting firm also showed favorable numbers for Together for Change (32%), in this case with a more comfortable margin against UP (24%).
Regarding the first numbers of June, the two coalitions showed rising numbers (from 29% to 32% for Juntos and from 22% to 24% in the ruling party). This behavior was not the same in the figure of Milei, who showed a decline of two points (21% to 19%).
However, if the month of May is taken as a reference, the drop is more pronounced, going from 26% to 19%.
In the game of the inmates, the Bullrich-Petri pairing prevailed again against Larreta-Morales by 18% against 14%. In the case of Unión por la Patria, it is overwhelming in favor of Massa, who achieves 19% against 5% for Grabois.
The CB consultant survey was conducted between June 25 and 17 on a total of 2,856 cases online. The margin of error was +/-1.8% and the confidence level was 95%.
In the case of Opinaia, 1,300 cases from all over the country were surveyed online. The work was carried out between June 26 and 29, with a margin of error of +/-2.2% and a confidence level of 95%.
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