2023-10-16 04:00:00
Will Hezbollah manage to open a second front against Israel in the north of the country? Paradoxically, this is the worst thing that could happen to the Palestinians.
This is because even if Benjamin Netanyahu formed a war cabinet with the main Israeli opposition forces, the core of his government remains extremist.
In the late 1990s, Netanyahu actively participated in the collapse of the Oslo peace accords. Even today, Netanyahu colludes with the most extreme political fringes, Israelis who want to complete the colonization of the West Bank and begin that of Gaza.
However, several voices around the world, including that of the Chinese government, are beginning to speak out to denounce the attack on the Gaza Strip which is reportedly going beyond the threshold of reprisals.
A pretext to colonize
Increasing suspicions weigh on the Netanyahu government, which could seek to take advantage of the new war to accelerate the colonization of the West Bank or to begin that of the Gaza Strip.
An attack by Hezbollah could only reinforce Netanyahu’s war logic.
Hezbollah is an organization very similar to Hamas. However, Hezbollah has much greater military resources than Hamas. In addition, it is powerfully supported by Iran.
For Hamas, Israel’s war is lost in advance. The outcome of a war against Hezbollah, and therefore against Iran, is less certain. It would very likely inflict much greater damage on Israel than that against Hamas.
In other words, in such a war, Israel could more easily play the victim and therefore better promote the annexation of new Palestinian territories in international public opinion.
High potential for overflow
The regional spillover potential of the war against Hamas is limited, but that of a war against Hezbollah is very great.
It would be enough for the Israeli army to be in difficulty for American troops to intervene.
Conversely, Iranian leaders could conclude that a Hezbollah defeat against Israel would result in an intolerable loss of influence and legitimacy for them. They could therefore decide to directly send Iranian troops to fight against Israel.
Israel’s defense minister said Sunday that his country was not interested in waging war against Hezbollah. The Iranian government does not seem particularly inclined to start a war against Israel either.
But in recent days, Hezbollah has increased its attacks against Israel. Fanatical Hezbollah leaders might believe that the time for the final struggle has come.
And above all, Iranian leaders have warned Israel of a spiral of uncontrolled violence which could be unleashed if the attacks on the Gaza Strip continue. One way of explaining that Iran’s influence on Hezbollah has its limits.
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