2023-12-01 05:39:00
In 2014, it was CD&V Kris Peeters who was to take over the “16”. But, in the final sprint which allowed the “Swedish” majority to see the light of day, the Flemish Christian Democrats gave up: suddenly, they demanded the post of European commissioner… Subtle balances then tipped the position of Prime Minister in the purse of the MR. Charles Michel will become the boss of the new federal coalition.
Becoming Prime Minister… An unexpected opportunity in the career of an elected official, but also a challenge for the training that provides it. Running the federal government comes with a high political cost. In the 2019 elections, after four years of managing power alongside the N-VA, the MR lost six seats in the Chamber. It was a defeat. The 2024 ballot should confirm this implacable mechanism: Alexander De Croo’s Open VLD will probably suffer. The Flemish liberals could lose half of their federal deputies, according to the latest polls.
However, 16, rue de la Loi remains openly coveted by some, more discreetly by others. Six months before the elections, a few names are already standing out. La Libre examined the strengths and weaknesses of each.
Paul Magnette: regrets are eternal
October 1, 2020. Invited on LN24 on the day of the swearing-in of ministers in the De Croo government, the president of the PS admitted feeling “a touch of regret”. Paul Magnette had taken “a step aside in the interest of the country”. He was convinced that after three French-speaking Prime Ministers (Elio Di Rupo, Charles Michel, Sophie Wilmès), it was necessary to install a Flemish person in “16”. Since this painful moment, time has done its work and the boss of the socialists no longer holds back anything. At the start of the year, he recognized his appetite for the post of Prime Minister: “In 2024, if the socialist family comes first and the PS is in front (ahead of Vooruit, Editor’s note), I will not decline responsibility, I ‘will assume’. That clears things up. But the fall of Conner Rousseau, former president of the Flemish Socialists, will perhaps have negative electoral consequences for Vooruit. To the point of jeopardizing the chances of the PS Prime Minister candidate?
Paul Magnette, the president of the PS. ©ÉdA-Vincent LorentThe resignation of Conner Rousseau reshuffles the cards of Flemish… and federal politics
Sophie Wilmès: the major asset of the MR
Aspired from above towards the presidency of the European Council, Charles Michel handed over the keys to 16, rue de la Loi to Sophie Wilmès. On October 27, 2019, the liberal became the first woman to hold the office of Prime Minister in Belgium. It was only an interim period, but the Covid crisis transformed his passage to “16” into a historic sequence. When Vivaldi was set up, Sophie Wilmès took over as head of Belgian diplomacy. For family reasons, however, she will give up the Foreign Affairs portfolio and return to the benches of the House of Representatives. The electoral campaign, of which we are already feeling the first tremors, will undoubtedly put it back at the center of the political game. Sophie Wilmès will be head of the list for the Brussels federal list. What if the liberal family was in a position of strength in a future coalition? The former Prime Minister, still very popular, could take up her quarters at “16”. This track is mentioned behind the scenes by certain keen observers…
Sophie Wilmès (MR), former Prime Minister, former Minister of Foreign Affairs. Portrait: Sophie Wilmès, the real First
Frank Vandenbroucke: a very harsh statesman
The Deputy Prime Minister of Vooruit, who is believed to have superior intelligence, combines the qualities that make statesmen. Very experienced, he knows his files like the back of his hand. Frank Vandenbroucke is also capable of reaching compromises. The young Conner Rousseau having scuttled his own destiny, the leader of the Flemish socialists within the De Croo government could, if the electoral results permitted, assume the highest ministerial function. Let’s imagine that the next majority unites the liberals, the socialists, the N-VA, etc. : Frank Vandenbroucke, Flemish but perfectly bilingual, left-wing but in favor of rigorous management, could satisfy the various partners. However, the Vice-Premier rejects this perspective: “During my career, I have always been, at best, number 2 and I like that,” he confided to La Libre in July. Furthermore, his sometimes very harsh, even brittle – and even violent – attitude during the kern casts doubt on his ability to ease the inevitable relational tensions which shake a government at regular intervals.
Frank Vandebroucke (Vooruit), Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Social Affairs in the De Croo government. Frank Vandenbroucke, the revenge of an ascetic (Portrait)
Alexander De Croo : fully dependent on the Open VLD
The current Prime Minister would like to return in 2024. Ideally, he dreams of being the one who puts Belgium back on the rails of growth and well-being after the pandemic, after the energy crisis… At the end of the next legislature , we will approach the date of Belgium’s bicentenary, in 2030. Quite a symbol. But there is a long way to go. We have written: Alexander De Croo’s chances are weighed down by the poor health of his party, the Open VLD. If the polls are confirmed, in June 2024, the Flemish liberals will occupy last place among the parties in the north of the country. Under these conditions, it will be difficult for them to claim 16, rue de la Loi. Alexander De Croo knows this well and conditions his candidacy on an honorable score from his political training. Furthermore, we cannot exclude the possibility that he will fly to other skies if an international post becomes available. In any case, we should not underestimate the ability of this impassive and secretive man to create a surprise at the last minute…
Alexander De Croo, the current Prime Minister, does not rule out staying at 16, rue de la Loi, after the 2024 elections. But… ©PREAlexander De Croo at La Libre: “The period of major institutional reforms, Honestly, it’s in the past.”
Bart De Wever: only if the stars align
The president of the N-VA wants to enter into an agreement with the PS in order to reform Belgian institutions in a nationalist fashion. After the elections, he imagines setting up a government responsible for unraveling the federal state. In May, he detailed his plan in the northern press: “You only occupy the positions of deputy prime ministers and you agree on a few minimum objectives, particularly budgetary ones. During this time, you are rebuilding the country in depth, with a confederal turn.” Only under these conditions could Bart De Wever consider becoming Prime Minister. Piloting a state reform from the “16th” giving more power to Flanders would constitute the culmination of the career of the mayor of Antwerp. But the arithmetic is cruel: to revise the Constitution, two thirds of the votes are necessary in parliament… However, the different parties which sit there oppose each other on the future contours of our institutions. For example, the blues and greens want to strengthen federalism. A long period in current affairs could, however, force them to compromise with the Flamingos in order to “unblock” the country.
Bart De Wever, president of the N-VA. The future head of a government of institutional reforms? ©-BelgaBart De Wever to La Libre: “If you don’t like me, look who will come after me…”
Georges-Louis Bouchez: a strategic ambition
The head of the MR always applies the same recipe intended to galvanize him: aim for the highest position, enter into competition with the best. When he was only a local elected official in Mons, he eyed the mayor’s chair. Symbolically, he thus rose to the height of Elio Di Rupo, one of his models. Now party president, he is seeking the position of Prime Minister. However, he is more discreet on this subject: Sophie Wilmès will have priority if the MR were to recover the “16”. Another (big) problem for “GLB”: if the French-speaking liberals appear in the next coalition, the presidents of the other parties will not want to give the keys to government to such an offensive personality. Since he was elected to the liberal presidency, Georges-Louis Bouchez has spared no one. Let’s not dismiss his name too quickly: if he masters the art of controversy, he also knows how to reconcile with his adversaries. During the summer of 2020, the foundations of the Vivaldi majority were formed thanks to an unexpected agreement between the environmentalist family and the liberal family.
Georges-Louis Bouchez, the president of the MR, has a strategy: always aim for the most important function and take advantage of the political aspiration created by this ambition. Portrait of Georges-Louis Bouchez upon his arrival at the head of the MR: modest origins, Di Rupo as a model, the Whatsapp syndrome…
The surprise that no one saw coming…
Politics contains a significant amount of contingency and there are several important factors to keep in mind. Charles Michel will leave the presidency of the European Council. He would seek to relocate to an international role. But, it is said, its prospects are narrowing. What if he returned to Belgian politics? This is not the most likely. The former Prime Minister and former president of the MR has, however, often defied the predictions. The same thinking can be applied to Didier Reynders: he still has many supporters among the liberals. His status as a wise man in Belgian politics could work in his favor. Particularly if the N-VA – with which he had tried to set up an Orange and Blue coalition in 2007 – returned to power at the federal level. Another hypothesis: what if, in the federal government, the CD&V could place one of its members at 16, rue de la Loi? The president of the Christian Democrats, Sammy Mahdi, could then give himself a gift and take over from the big names in his party: Martens, Dehaene, Van Rompuy…
Mahdi and Bouchez, the possible political axis of two ideologues
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