2023-07-19 04:29:19
Canada will need to produce more electricity in the next 25 years than it has generated in the last century to sustain a carbon-neutral economy by 2050, reveals a new report from the Public Policy Forum study group .
Reducing our reliance on fossil fuels and switching to emission-free electricity to power our cars, heat our homes and run our factories will require doubling or even tripling the amount of energy we currently produce, the federal government estimates.
Imagine every dam, turbine, nuclear plant and solar array across Canada, then imagine a few more next door, says the group’s report, to be released Wednesday.
This is going to be expensive: most estimates are in the trillions.
It will also require, according to the report, consultation with Indigenous peoples, intergovernmental cooperation and rapid decision-making and construction, areas in which Canada is not necessarily the most effective.
A date with fate
We have a date with fate, said Edward Greenspon, president of the Public Policy Forum.
We have to build, build, build. We are way behind where we need to be and we don’t have much time left, he added.
Later this summer, Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault will release new regulations requiring all electricity generated in the country to come from non-emitting sources by 2035.
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Steven Guilbeault, federal Minister of Environment and Climate Change, speaks May 18, 2023 in the Commons in Ottawa.
Photo: The Canadian Press/Patrick Doyle
For Mr. Greenspon, this goal includes two major challenges: massively increasing the amount of energy we produce and making it all clean.
On average, it takes more than four years to get a new power generation project approved by Ottawa, and more than three years for new transmission lines, all before a single shovel digs into the ground.
Building is another thing. The Site C dam in British Columbia, under construction since 2015, will not be commissioned until 2025. Between the first proposal and its operation, 11 years have passed for the proposed new transmission line from northern Manitoba to south of the province.
We need to act very quickly, and probably with a different approach, you know, with no obstacles, no downtimes, warned Mr Greenspon.
Reluctance and planning
There are big unanswered questions about the new energy recipe, and the speed of moving away from fossil fuels is one of the biggest political battles brewing in the country.
Six provinces, including the three largest, get more than 90% of their electricity from clean sources, including hydro, nuclear and wind.
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NB Power must stop burning coal at its thermal plant in Belledune by 2030 under federal rules.
Photo: NB Power
Four provinces – New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Alberta and Saskatchewan – still rely heavily on coal or natural gas for their electricity.
The premiers of Alberta and Saskatchewan said the 2035 clean electricity regulations were too expensive and they simply couldn’t meet them.
Instead, they aim for 2050, when Canada wants to be carbon neutral, meaning all greenhouse gas emissions will be captured and not allowed to escape into the atmosphere where they contribute to global warming.
The federal government has suggested there might be some flexibility, but has not yet detailed how this would be articulated.
Towards 25 difficult years
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Doug Ford’s government had slashed energy projects, including wind turbines.
Photo : Associated Press / Patrick Pleul
Mr Greenspon said there were signs that most governments now grasped the enormity of the challenge.
In 2022, the federal budget only mentioned electricity 20 times. A year later, he has appeared 88 times, with billions of dollars pledged to help build and transmit clean energy.
All provinces have or are in the process of declaring their energy plans for the next 30 years. In June, British Columbia announced it would launch a call for new renewable energy sources in 2024, the first time it has done so in 15 years. The province intends to start adding 3,000 gigawatt hours of electricity generation each year from 2028, enough to power 270,000 homes.
Five years ago, the Conservative government of Ontario spent nearly $300 million to shut down hundreds of renewable electricity projects that the previous Liberal government signed on to. Premier Doug Ford said electricity was not needed and wind power was destroying the province’s energy system.
Last week, however, Ontario Energy Minister Todd Smith introduced an energy plan that includes billions of dollars in new nuclear projects as well as a return to wind and solar projects the government has formerly characterized as a waste of money.
The surplus in Quebec has melted
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The La Gabelle dam on the Saint-Maurice River
Photo: Hydro-Quebec
Ontario, like Alberta and Saskatchewan, expects to rely on gas for some electricity for some time to maintain stability.
But demand is growing faster than expected, and the construction of new clean electricity infrastructure is failing to keep pace.
We are going to live 25 difficult years, fears Mr Greenspon.
Quebec has already had to start limiting industrial expansion because it cannot meet all electricity needs.
This province, with its 62 hydroelectric plants, produces so much electricity that it sells a lot of it south of the border. But with demand rising, provincial energy minister Pierre Fitzgibbon warned in May that the electricity surplus would end by 2026.
Our surpluses have melted like glaciers under the sun of climate change, he said in a speech to the Board of Trade of Metropolitan Montreal.
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