Hours before the reported death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, an account on the prediction market Polymarket made over $500,000 betting on his removal from office before March 31, 2026, according to a report published March 6, 2026, by Responsible Statecraft.
The Polymarket account, identified as “Magamyman,” was one of several to profit from anticipating the event. The report detailed that six Polymarket accounts collectively earned over $1.2 million betting that the U.S. Would strike Iran by February 28, 2026. These accounts reportedly received funding via cryptocurrency wallets that had been inactive prior to February 27, 2026.
users of prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket wagered more than $255 million on events related to the attacks in Iran, according to the Responsible Statecraft report. This follows a similar pattern observed in 2023, when an individual on Polymarket reportedly made over $400,000 by betting on the removal of Nicolás Maduro from power in Venezuela.
The surge in activity on these platforms has prompted concerns about potential insider information influencing trading. Analysts at Responsible Statecraft suggest the timing and volume of trades raise the possibility that some bettors possessed advance knowledge of impending military action. A recent dispatch from the Atlantic Council highlighted the risk of these markets becoming a “new vector for foreign influence,” noting that access to privileged information and the ability to manipulate market prices could be exploited by adversaries.
Prediction markets, which function similarly to stock markets, allow users to bet on the outcome of future events. While once considered a niche phenomenon, they have gained increasing attention, with mainstream news organizations beginning to incorporate prediction market data into their reporting, according to the Atlantic Council report. However, the Council on Foreign Relations noted in August 2025 that liquidity constraints can limit the reliability of these markets.
The rise of geopolitical prediction markets has also drawn scrutiny from financial regulators. On March 12, 2026, CME Group Executive Chairman Terry Duffy called for tighter rules and clearer definitions to distinguish between legitimate outcome-based financial contracts and event wagers, as reported by Reuters. Duffy’s comments came amid a period of rapid growth for prediction markets, which have become one of the hottest U.S. Asset classes over the past year.
The Council on Foreign Relations reported in August 2025 that speculators wagered over $1 billion on the outcome of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election alone. The platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are among the most prominent in this emerging space, offering markets on a wide range of geopolitical contingencies, including the likelihood of a ceasefire in Ukraine and the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
