Forceps winners of the Clippers in the first round of the “play-in”, the Wolves are officially 7th in the Western Conference, and will therefore face the Grizzlies, 2nd in the conference, in the first round of the playoffs. Chris Finch’s men will play in April for the first time since 2018, the year of Jimmy Butler’s first season (and Tom Thibodeau’s second) in the “Twin Cities” region, and for the second time in… 17 seasons !
A real feat for this franchise, stuck for a long time in the depths of the Western Conference. This qualification for the playoffs is therefore a just reward, both for the good work of building the workforce carried out internally for more than a year, but also for Chris Finch and his players, who have ensured on the field. Exhilarating and pleasant to watch, the Wolves have finally found their colors, under the impetus of their trio Karl-Anthony Towns – D’Angelo Russell – Anthony Edwardsformed only last year.
Opposite, another surprise, but on another level. Holders of the 2nd best record in the entire league at the end of the regular season (56-26), only behind the untouchable Suns, the Grizzlies have their claws sharpened at the dawn of these 2022 playoffs. And Morant stratospheric (27.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, 6.7 assists), All-Star for the first time in his career in February, the Tennessee squad is an oiled collective, which executes its plans with precision, both in attack and defense (5th best offensive rating in the league, 4th best defensive rating).
In short, the two clubs have everything to offer an explosive series, under the sign of the attack: the Wolves have the highest offensive pace (“pace”) in the league (100.9 possessions on average per game), the Grizzlies are third (100.3 possessions). Add to the equation the presence of top-notch attackers, mostly huge athletes, and big mouths who are never afraid of a tough exchange, and you have the perfect cocktail for a memorable playoff series. .
Introducing the Grizzlies
Holders: J. Morant, D. Bane, D. Brooks, J. Jackson Jr., S. Adams.
The substitutes: T. Jones, D. Melton, Z. Williams, K. Anderson, B. Clarke, J. Konchar, X. Tillman.
None absent.
The coach: T. Jenkins.
After a first month during which they alternated between good and bad (10-10 after 20 games), the Grizzlies then stepped on the accelerator, and never lifted their foot again. The Memphis season was thus characterized by several very good runs from December onwards. We will particularly remember this first series of 10 victories in 11 matches between November 28 and December 17, a second of 11 consecutive victories between December 26 and January 13, but also this end of the season with a bang, with 15 victories in 22 matches after All-Star Weekend.
In summary, the Grizzlies have had very few downtimes in the 2021/22 fiscal year, and their momentum a few hours before the start of the playoffs is therefore ideal. The most impressive thing is that this observation also applies to matches played without Ja Morant. In total, the explosive leader of Memphis missed 24 games. The balance sheet of the Grizzlies in his absence? 20 wins and 4 losses. Behind the untouchable Suns, the residents of the FedEx Forum walked the league during the regular season, with or without Ja Morant.
POINTS FORTS
A very good balance of forces. As mentioned above, the Grizzlies have the 5th best offensive rating in the entire NBA this season, with 114.5 points scored on average per 100 possessions, and the 4th best defensive rating, with 109 points against on average. It’s a positive net rating (difference between offensive and defensive rating) of 5.6, the 4th highest in the entire league. The greatest strength of the Grizzlies is there: their good offense feeds on their good defense, and vice versa. Their game is stable, with a permanent balance of forces. A quality sine qua non to aim for a long run in the playoffs. It now remains to prove that they are able to maintain this balance during cleaver matches…
The ramming of the opponent’s racket. With Ja Morant, the Grizzlies are the best team to attack the opposing racket. They are scoring 57.6 points per game this season, and that’s 4.3 more than any team. In the last 26 seasons, only two other teams have scored more in the paint than this version of Memphis. Closing the racket is therefore essential to contain the Tennessee troop, especially since Memphis is only 26th for the address at half distance and 17th at 3-points. The problem is that everyone knows it, and (almost) no one can…
WEAK POINTS
The lack of collective experience in the playoffs. Despite a perfectly mastered regular season, the Grizzlies are sorely lacking in experience in high-stakes playoff games, and therefore cannot afford to rest on their regular season success. Because all the counters are reset at the start of the playoffs, and although the dynamic is excellent, they will have to show another face in the context of a best-of-seven series, when the margin of error is limited.
The outdoor and mid-distance address. We said it: the Grizzlies depend a lot on their ability to attack the circle, on placed play as on quick play. Because otherwise, apart from Desmond Bane, this group lacks reliable shooters from far, or mid-distance. However, it is often there that the matches are won in the playoffs.
Introducing Wolves
Holders: D. Russell, P. Beverley, A. Edwards, J. Vanderbilt, K. Towns.
The substitutes: M. Beasley, J. McDaniels, N. Reid, J. Nowell, J. Okogie, J. McLaughlin, T. Prince (incertain, « day-to-day »).
None absent.
The coach: C. Finch.
For Chris Finch’s first full season, Wolves delivered a very good exercise overall. Despite turbulence at the start of the season (4 wins out of the first 13 matches), the wolves quickly rectified the situation to find themselves in balance (15-15) as Christmas approached. The switch to 2022 was then an important step in Minnesota’s season, with 7 wins in the first 10 games of January.
A voucher momentum which allowed Wolves to reach the All-Star Weekend break with a positive record (31-28). The rest of the season was a mere formality, and despite recurring minor physical glitches for Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell, Wolves finished strong, winning 15 of their last 23 regular season matches.
From this collective success, we will especially remember the XXL season of Karl-Anthony Towns (24.6 points, 9.8 rebounds, 3.6 assists), who became All-Star again and who established himself as the boss of this young pack, but also the rise in power impressive Anthony Edwards, who is already playing at an All-Star level or almost, although he is only a “sophomore”, or even the emergence of precious “role players”, such as Naz Reid, Jarred Vanderbilt or Jaden McDaniels .
POINTS FORTS
Son trio. In the continuity of a successful regular season, Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards (64 points on average per game three) will still be the anchor of Wolves in attack during the playoffs. Very effective on “pick-and-roll” in particular, the duo Russell – Towns will be the key to undermine the solid defense of Memphis. The scoring of “Ant”, and his ability to easily go to the circle, will also be a major asset for Minnesota to put pressure on Steven Adams in the second curtain, and thus create decisive shifts. With this trio in charge in attack, the Wolves have an arsenal at their disposal capable of jostling the Grizzlies, forcing them to make choices.
The enthusiasm behind Patrick Beverley. The point guard can be annoying, and he’s not the most effective defender in the NBA, but his energy and reckless side do a lot of good for these Wolves who have lacked character in the past. He won’t stop Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and Dillon Brooks on his own, but if he manages to get them into the “mental games” he loves, he can distract them.
WEAK POINTS
The defense in transition. If the defensive level displayed by the Wolves during the regular season seems rather reassuring (111.7 points against 100 possessions, 13th best total in the league), there are still big questions. Because the defense of the Wolves suffers for example transition: the men of Chris Finch collect an average of 21.5 points per game on the opposing counter-attacks, the 3rd highest total in the league in this area. Even more worrying? Memphis is the team that scores the most points on counterattacks, with an average of 17.7 points per game. In summary, to hold the shock in defense, the Wolves will imperatively have to slow down the offensive rhythm of the Grizzlies. The battle for the rebound will then be decisive…
Grizzlies capable of hindering Karl-Anthony Towns. Faced with the duo Jaren Jackson Jr – Steven Adams, “KAT” will have a lot to do. The first, a complete and mobile defender, can come and annoy him outside to try to limit his effectiveness behind the arc (41% at 3-pointers out of 4.9 attempts for Towns this season), when the imposing physique of the second will be a major hurdle in the racket, as the Wolves pivot doesn’t particularly like rough contact. The four clashes between the two teams during the regular season have in any case taught us something: Karl-Anthony Towns was not once his team’s top scorer! If the Grizzlies manage to duplicate this defensive model during the series, they will have a definite advantage.
The key to the series
Rhythm. Both teams are in the Top 3 in tempo this season, but that regular-season tempo would make the Grizzlies huge favorites in the series. With their defense well in place and their strength on quick play, as well as their ability to attack the circle, Ja Morant and his companions are almost unplayable as soon as they can run. Minnesota will therefore have to find solutions to slow down the game, while remaining effective, in order to cast doubt on the Tennessee franchise, and dream of an upset.
Regular season
2-2.
November 9: Grizzlies – Wolves (125-118)
November 21: Wolves – Grizzlies (138-95)
January 14: Grizzlies – Wolves (116-108)
January 25: Wolves – Grizzlies (119-114)
Verdict.
MEMPHIS. If this series promises to be spectacular, between two young ambitious and fairly inexperienced teams, it is the Grizzlies who still seem better equipped to achieve four victories. Despite a lack of experience at this stage of the season not to be underestimated, Ja Morant and his band have reason to be confident. Because their dynamic has been close to perfection for several weeks, and their confidence is at its highest: unlike the Wolves, they did not have to go through the “play-in” and approach this series without the nervous load inherent in this cleaver match. In addition, the Grizzlies are more capable of raising their defensive level. During a series that promises to be resolutely offensive, this should surely make the difference in key moments, against a Wolves team less sure of their strengths in this area. Finally, the advantage of the field, synonymous with a boiling FedEx Forum from the first two games of the series, is another element in favor of Memphis.
Prognosis : Grizzlies 4-2
Programme
Game 1 : Saturday April 16, Memphis – Minnesota (9:30 p.m.)
Game 2 : Tuesday April 19, Memphis – Minnesota (schedule not determined)
Game 3 : Thursday April 21, Minnesota – Memphis (01:30 a.m.)
Game 4 : Saturday April 23, Minnesota – Memphis (schedule not determined)
Game 5*: Tuesday April 26, Memphis – Minnesota (schedule not determined)
Game 6*: Friday April 29, Minnesota – Memphis (schedule not determined)
Game 7*: Sunday May 1, Memphis – Minnesota (timetable not determined)
* if necessary