Ukraine war highlights divisions in Central Asia and sparks unrest in former Soviet territories
Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and other participants attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) leaders’ summit in Samarkand on Sept. 16. (Photo: Sergei Bobylyov/Pool/AFP/Sputnik/Getty Images)
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit could have provided an opportunity for Beijing and Moscow to champion a “multipolar world order”, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may have sowed divisions within the grouping and alienated some countries.
Having watched Russian tanks enter Ukraine, a former Soviet republic, Central Asian leaders from former Soviet territories are concerned that Russia will invade their territory as well.
Kazakhstan, in particular, has refused to toe the Moscow line. It has sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine, and its president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, has publicly refused to recognize Russia-backed breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, angering some Kremlin officials.
China’s refusal to condemn Russia has also caused unrest among Central Asian countries, according to experts. That could hamper China’s efforts to build closer ties with its Central Asian neighbors, an effort in which China has invested heavily for two decades.
During Xi Jinping’s state visit to Kazakhstan on Wednesday – his first trip abroad in almost 1,000 days – the Chinese leader tried to allay these concerns.
China will always support Kazakhstan in maintaining national independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Xi told Tokayev, according to Chinese state media.
Also complicating the picture is India, which occupies a unique role in the SCO.
Delhi, which like Beijing has not condemned the Russian invasion, has strong ties with Moscow dating back to the Cold War. By some estimates, India sources more than 50% of its military equipment from Russia.
In recent months, India has significantly increased its purchases of Russian oil, coal and fertilizers, despite Western pressure to cut economic ties with the Kremlin following its aggression in Ukraine.
But Delhi has also seen relations with Beijing plummet due to conflicts on its border, and has grown closer to Washington and its allies in the Indo-Pacific. India is a member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue along with the United States, Japan and Australia, a grouping that has drawn closer over threats from China.
Modi, who arrived in Samarkand in the early hours of Friday, is expected to hold one-on-one meetings with his Russian, Uzbek and Iranian counterparts, an Indian Foreign Ministry source told CNN.
But according to his provisional agenda, Modi does not have any meeting with Xi scheduled. The two leaders have not met since the start of the China-India border conflict more than two years ago.
Last week, Delhi and Beijing began withdrawing from the Gogra-Hotsprings border area in the western Himalayas.
In addition to its territorial disputes, Delhi is also wary of Beijing’s growing economic influence over its smaller neighbors.
“Since Modi came to power, we have seen (India-China) relations deteriorate steadily,” said Manoj Kewalramani, China studies fellow at the Takshashila Institution of India.
But Kewalramani said the SCO could provide a “space (for India) to engage with China and Russia.”
“In particular, being at the table while China and Russia are together, because the closer that relationship gets, the more difficult it will be for India,” he said.