March 18, 2024
There was no intrigue in the results of the “dubious” and “distorted” presidential elections in Russia – no one doubted the victory of the current president, Vladimir Putin, Western media write.
And at the same time, they ask the question – hasn’t Putin outdone himself, and what will happen to Russia next?
“Historical low”
Edition Politico believes, that Putin will undoubtedly use the election result – in which he won a record 87% of the vote – as proof of mass support. But such “distorted elections” – during which all his rivals were destroyed, even the dead voted – risk undermining the political stability he craves.
These elections became a “historic minimum” for post-Soviet Russia – “only three Kremlin candidates separated Putin from the Stalinist ballot with one surname,” the publication writes.
Never before have there been so few independent observers with such limited access to an election, some regions have introduced electronic voting that makes it easier for fraud, and the most egregious violation has been “dead soul” voting, Politico noted.
This especially applies to the votes of voters from the “new territories” occupied by Russia in Ukraine, where, according to election authorities, there were about 4.6 million potential voters. This figure corresponds to the old peacetime Ukrainian statistics – but not to the current population.
“There is a war going on there and there is no public control. So whatever result the authorities wanted, that’s what they got. Here we are entering the realm of pure fiction,” David Kankiu, an expert of the Russian independent monitoring organization Holos, is quoted as saying by the publication.
Footage circulated around the world, when in the occupied territories, people with weapons entered even the election booths, where people cast their votes.
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“Elections” were also held in the occupied territory of Ukraine – in particular, in Donetsk
Politico also notes that tens of millions of government workers and students were forced to go to the polls and vote.
Paradoxically, the queues that could be seen outside some polling stations on Friday were actually a demonstration of people “deprived of the right to vote”.
“Like in Soviet times, when you were forced to vote whether you wanted to or not,” says Kankia.
Putin’s election resembles not a demonstration of a slice of public sentiment, but a nationwide test of the readiness of the state apparatus, which he successfully passed, writes Politico.
From state-owned companies to libraries, universities and factories, bosses instructed subordinates how and when to vote, then demanded proof that they had completed the task.
“The last three days of voting gave Putin confidence that the vertical of power is working, and Russians will do what they are told,” the authors of the article write.
At the same time, Politico writes that Putin will begin his fifth term amid the largest anti-war protests since the beginning of 2022.
Opposition-minded Russians came to the polling stations on election day for the “Noon against Putin” rally, which was called for by Alexei Navalny before his death. They also defaced ballots to demonstrate their protest.
The newspaper also notes that after winning the elections, Putin may step up mobilization efforts and reshuffle the government, most likely in favor of hardliners.
However, ironically, Politico writes, the biggest victim of his own falsified vote may be Putin himself.
“If the elite sees that, under pressure from the Kremlin, today they draw figures that are significantly different from the real ones, they will draw their own conclusions,” Mykola Petrov, a Chatham House consultant, is quoted as saying by the publication. “They’ll start looking around and wondering who they should bet on as the next boss.”
Putin’s task
During the three-day presidential vote in Russia, there was no question of a democratic process – but a resounding victory in the first round would give the incumbent a new “stamp of legitimacy” and send a clear message: Putin’s war against Ukraine has the full support of his people. CNN writes.
In an address to the Russian people on the eve of the election, Putin called on voters to vote as a sign of national unity and called Russians “one big family.”
However, he also vaguely hinted that after his re-election, “they have a lot of work ahead of them.”
So the publication asks the question – what are the real tasks facing the re-elected Putin?
Experts who monitor the situation in Russia focus on several important issues.
First, if the presidential election can indeed be seen as a referendum on Russia’s war in Ukraine, do its results free Putin’s hands to continue the war as he wants?
In this context, Putin really has room for maneuver, writes CNN. The Russian president has shown confidence about developments on the battlefield, especially since the capture of Bakhmut and Avdiivka, and the stalling of Western aid only reinforces that confidence.
In support of this, the publication cites Putin’s statement, which he made during an interview with the Russian propagandist Kiselyov.
“It’s kind of ridiculous for us to negotiate now just because they’re running out of ammunition,” he said.
But Russia’s gradual advance in eastern Ukraine comes at a terrible cost in human lives, CNN writes. And against this background, there are speculations that Putin may need a new wave of post-election mobilization in order to continue “feeding his troops in a meat grinder” at the front.
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Many in Russia fear a new wave of mobilization after the elections
Another item on Putin’s agenda after his re-election is called the continuation of repression against the Russian opposition – or rather, what is left of it.
In a comment after the polls closed in Russia, Putin took an unusual step – he mentioned the name of the late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, something he had never done before.
“As for Mr. Navalny, yes, he died – it’s always a sad event,” Putin said. “But there were other cases when people died in prisons. Didn’t that happen in the United States? It happened, and more than once.”
This may indicate Putin’s belief that he is not in danger, writes CNN, and at the same time adds that a reaction in the style of “but they have it” is not necessarily a sign of confidence.
The publication notes that the Russian leader has protected his economy from sanctions in the short term, his factories produce more shells than those of the US and its European allies, and the political landscape is cleared of any competition.
But war is always unpredictable. And no matter how much Putin tries to spin the situation in his favor, Russia’s long-term problems — demographic decline, the cost of war and sanctions, and the inevitable fragility of one-man rule — are unlikely to disappear before Putin runs for a sixth term.
What are Russians waiting for – and fearing?
Meanwhile, the American edition The New York Times writes about what the Russians themselves expect from Putin’s next presidential term – and what they fear.
The main concern is that Putin will use his unlimited power to introduce changes he avoided before the vote – including announcing a new wave of mobilization.
Other concerns concern finance and the economy, with some Russians worried that the ruble could depreciate again, raising the cost of imports, while businessmen worry about possible tax hikes.
Meanwhile, opposition activists, writes the NYT, expect an even greater suppression of dissent.
These concerns reflect the current mood in Russia, where many have learned to hope for the best but expect the worst.
At the same time, Denys Volkov, the director of the Levada Center, one of the few independent sociological organizations in Russia, notes that this mostly worries the minority of Russians who oppose the government.
And this government, according to experts, is becoming more and more authoritarian.
After more than two decades in power, Putin is not held back by an opposition party in parliament or a strong civil society. Therefore, he is free to act as he pleases.
Some experts say the Kremlin could have used the results of the vote to further suppress dissent and escalate the war in Ukraine.
“In authoritarian elections, the results are predictable, but the consequences are not,” the publication quotes Russian political scientist Kateryna Shulman. “If the system decides that it has done well and everything is fine, then the post-election period may become a time for making unpopular decisions.”
As an example, she cites Putin’s re-election in 2018, after which he took a very unpopular step – raising the retirement age.
At the same time, Denys Volkov from the Levada Center notes that most Russians, after the initial shock of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the mobilization that followed it, have adapted to a new life.
In many ways, this was the result of the government’s efforts to support the country’s economy and raise the morale of the population.
“There has been a serious redistribution of resources in favor of the majority, who feel that they can now live a normal life without taking a direct part in the war,” the publication quotes Volkov, who points to increased wages for factory workers and various social benefits.
However, he also points to a growing polarization between Putin’s supporters and opponents.
“Mutual misunderstanding today is more and sharper than before,” says Volkov.
Many Russian anti-Kremlin activists — those who remain in the country and those who have left — fear a new crackdown on dissent.
But some analysts doubt that Putin will go much further than he already has.
“The system cannot be in a state of mobilization and stress forever,” the publication quotes Russian political scientist Oleksandr Kinev. “If you give too much power to the security services, tomorrow they can remove you from power. And Vladimir Putin understands this well.”
“Noon against Putin”
Photo Caption,
Yulia Navalna at a rally in Berlin
Elections in Russia took place in a tightly controlled environment – voters literally had no choice, independent monitoring was practically absent, and the main opposition leader Alexei Navalny died in prison last month. writes the Associated Press.
In this totalitarian atmosphere, Navalny’s associates called on those who are dissatisfied with Putin and the war in Ukraine to come to the polling stations at noon on Sunday and join the action “Noon against Putin.”
Queues of dissidents were searched both at polling stations in Russia itself and abroad.
Yulia Navalna joined the action in Berlin, who spent more than five hours in line and told reporters that she had written the name of her late husband in the ballot.
Correspondents of the Associated Press also talked to protest participants in Moscow and St. Petersburg.
A woman named Yulia told AP that she was voting for the first time.
“Even if my vote doesn’t change anything, my conscience will be clear … for the future I want to see for our country,” she said.
Another Moscow voter named Vadim also said he hoped for change, but added that “unfortunately, it’s unlikely.”
Navalny’s supporters also came to his grave in Moscow, some bringing ballots with his name.
Despite strict control, several dozen cases of vandalism at polling stations were registered during voting.
Several people were arrested after trying to set fires or throw explosives at polling stations, while others were detained for throwing green or ink into ballot boxes.
At the same time, other Russians with whom AP spoke said that they are happy to vote for Putin.
“I am satisfied with everything and I want everything to continue as it is now,” said Dmytro Sergienko from Muscovite.