[Epoch Times October 28, 2021]Hello, everyone, it is October 27th (Wednesday) Eastern Time, and October 28th (Thursday) Beijing Time. Welcome to chat about current affairs every day. I am Sydney (Wang Yuhe); I am Qin Peng.
Today’s focus:Li KeqiangFrustrated one after another: The butler wasXi JinpingI was dismissed and I was accused of being responsible for the power shortage. Former South Korean President Roh Tae-woo, who you don’t know about: From dictatorship to democracy, his experience led to the misjudgment of the CCP’s Olympics by the West. (Qin Peng Live）
Sydney: Prime Minister of the Chinese Communist PartyLi KeqiangRecently, I have encountered big troubles. The director of the office was removed from his post and was named to be responsible for the current electricity shortage. In the past year, he went from the front page of the “People’s Daily” to the second page, and then to the third and fourth pages. This second-in-command, what will happen next?
Qin Peng: Today I want to talk about a special former South Korean president. Lu Taiyu passed away on Tuesday (26th). He has had ups and downs in his life, with mixed achievements. He participated in military coups and promoted democratic transformation. But what we want to talk about is that his establishment of diplomatic relations with many communist countries, including the CCP, during his tenure has also led to serious misjudgments of the CCP by the international community.
Li Keqiang suffered a series of setbacks: the steward of the electric shortage was dismissed
Sydney: China is now deeply mired in an energy crisis, affecting more than 20 provinces and cities. Not only are factories shutting down, the lives of ordinary people are also affected. Now many people worry about not only insufficient winter energy supply, but also long-term energy. shortage.
The authorities claimed that the main reason for the electricity shortage was the shortage of coal supply and high prices, which affected the enthusiasm of power companies for production. After the Chinese Communist Party introduced a market-oriented power supply policy in mid-October, electricity prices in more than a dozen provinces have recently increased. At the same time, some cities in China are now experiencing a “diesel shortage”, and some gas stations have begun to restrict refueling.
Qin Peng: Of course all this has caused dissatisfaction among many Chinese people. Let’s first look at an interview and an online video of the “China Forbidden News” on NTDTV.
Mr. Cheng from a ceramics factory in Foshan, Guangdong: “Who does the Communist Party make money? It has already risen on our side. It has already risen by 5%. Basically, how much electricity you use, if you exceed the quota, you will increase the price. Right. The impact is great. Many of the things that can’t be endured are gone.”
Video: “Commodities have an attribute, that is, when the supply exceeds demand, it will reduce the price, when the supply exceeds the demand, it will increase the price. Now the supply of electricity in the country exceeds demand, then I will ask why the supply exceeds demand. At the time, we should tend to increase prices instead? This is not in line with the attributes of commodities.”
Sydney: The dissatisfaction of these people is likely to be carried by the Chinese Premier Li Keqiang.
The Wall Street Journal yesterday (26th) quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that the current electricity crisis in China has triggered political quarrels within the CCP; government departments and state-owned enterprises blamed part of the responsibility on the electricity price control advocated by China’s Premier Li Keqiang. policy.
Qin Peng: In China, electricity prices are regulated by the central government. Therefore, in the face of skyrocketing global coal prices, Chinese power companies cannot pass on higher costs to consumers.
For many years, Li Keqiang has been emphasizing the reduction of production costs for enterprises, saying that allowing electricity prices to rise too quickly will have social consequences. He even demanded that electricity prices be reduced by 10% each year in 2018 and 2019, and by 5% in 2020, to help companies control production costs.
The source said that the CCP authorities held a series of emergency meetings during the NationalXi JinpingOverturned Li Keqiang’s policy and allowed electricity prices to rise. The National Development and Reform Commission of the Communist Party of China issued a notice on October 12, allowing electricity prices to increase by 20%, but the increase in electricity prices for high-energy-consuming enterprises will not be capped. The new regulations will be implemented on October 15, and as of the 25th, electricity prices in more than ten provinces have increased by nearly 20%.
Sydney: Many people say that the power shortage in China this time is largely due to the Chinese Communist government’s improper handling of the energy market, which is a man-made disaster.
Li Keqiang’s proposition is that the price of electricity is too high for enterprises to bear. Xi Jinping overthrew Li Keqiang’s policy of controlling electricity prices this time and allowed electricity prices to rise. However, some sources revealed that executives of state companies privately complained that the political drive suppressed coal supply.
It is said that in the past year, Xi Jinping’s authorities have “investigated the corruption in the coal industry in Inner Mongolia for 20 years.” At that time, he said that “this account is always to be settled.” But Inner Mongolia is China’s second largest coal-producing region after Shanxi Province. State media reported that the purging of the coal industry has affected more than half of coal mines in Inner Mongolia, resulting in a sharp drop in coal production.
There is also Xi Jinping’s proposal to “carbon peak” in 2030 and “carbon neutral” in 2060. The outside world also said that in order to achieve the “dual carbon” goal, many coal-fired power plants were shut down, which caused an electricity shortage in China and dragged down the economy. Qin Peng, who do you think should be responsible for the electricity shortage?
Qin Peng: I think Xi Jinping should take the main responsibility. There are several main reasons for this wave of electricity shortage, including: 1. There is a problem with the coal-electricity price linkage model, that is, whether the electricity price should follow the rise and fall of coal prices; 2. The central government suppresses small coal mines and off-balance sheet coal production capacity, resulting in electricity prices. Insufficient coal, as well as local governments’ violations after the CCP’s request for restoration, resulted in the delay in output; 3. Global production recovery demand expanded and prices rose; 4. Indonesia, a major thermal coal producer, reduced exports.
The first one can be said to be related to Li Keqiang. However, 2, 3, and 4 are major policy and environmental issues, and Li Keqiang cannot be blamed.
In addition, there are two more: the sanctions on Australia have prevented the import of cheap Australian coal, or the import price of a detour; in order to divide the United States, the CCP and climate ambassador Kerry reached a compromise, forcibly cut off electricity, and performed bitter tricks. These two are related to Xi Jinping.
Sydney: Right now, before the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the high-level internal fighting is very serious. Therefore, all kinds of news may involve the rumors released by a certain political faction.
However, Li Keqiang’s current status is not guaranteed, and there are many clues. In addition to the launch of the power shortage, the State Council of the Communist Party of China announced the appointment and dismissal information on the 25th. Shi Gang, Li Keqiang’s office director, was removed from the post of deputy director of the State Council Research Office.
Li Keqiang butler was removed from office
The outside world believes that this shows that Li Keqiang no longer has any influence on the political situation of the Chinese Communist Party. Because according to the CCP’s Constitution, Li Keqiang will step down as prime minister at the CCP National People’s Congress in March next year, and there will be more than a year before he abdicates, but Xi Jinping has now begun to deal with Li Keqiang’s personnel.
Qin Peng: Yes, from the perspective of time, Shi Gang has been following Li Keqiang for 10 years, but he has never been promoted to a ministerial-level official, nor has he been appointed as the deputy secretary-general of the State Council. From the perspective of the CCP system, the reason for not being promoted for such a long time is because the master is not strong enough. The development trend of the great secret reflects the influence of the leader. (Qin Peng Live）
Judging from Shi Gang’s experience, he is 63 years old this year, from Tongcheng, Anhui, and Li Keqiang is an Anhui fellow. In 1997, Shi Gang was transferred to the former State Planning Commission to engage in macroeconomic policy research and economic situation analysis. After Li Keqiang became the executive vice premier and was in charge of the Development and Reform Commission of the Communist Party of China, Shi Gang began to enter Li Keqiang’s vision.
“China Business News” quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that Shi Gang was trained in his early years because of his cautious and pragmatic handling. Since 2006, Shi Gang has served as the Director of the Comprehensive Department of the Development and Reform Commission for a term of up to 7 years.
In March 2013, Li Keqiang became the Prime Minister of the Communist Party of China. In June of the same year, Shi Gang was selected as the deputy director of the Research Office of the State Council. A month later, he started concurrently as the director of the office of Premier Li Keqiang and officially became Li Keqiang’s butler.
However, in fact, the development of Shi Gang’s career has begun to reveal clues as early as January 2018. At that time, he began to serve as a member of the Standing Committee of the CPPCC National Committee. This position is also recognized as a political vase. CCP officials are slowly fading out of the senior care department in politics. After Shi Gang was appointed, it already meant that he would retire in the near future.
This time, Shi Gang was formally removed from office. It was confirmed from the side that although Li Keqiang was still the prime minister of the Chinese Communist Party, under the leadership of Xi Jinping, he had no real influence.
Li Keqiang’s news has been downgraded in official media
Sydney: There is another thing. The outside world discovered that Li Keqiang’s news has been downgraded and downgraded in the official media. As early as a year ago, news about Li Keqiang was rarely on the front page. For example, the news on October 1st last year appeared in the second edition, and on October 1st this year, it can only be found in the third edition, and then on October 13th, it has been put in the fourth edition. News such as his departure from Beijing for inspection are often delayed or downgraded. Some netizens said that such a downgrade of the prime minister is rare since the establishment of the Communist Party of China in 1949.
Qin Peng: Yes, in fact, since 2016, the outside world has believed that Li Keqiang is the least powerful prime minister in the history of the Chinese Communist Party. Li Keqiang is a technocrat, and his treatment should be related to his disagreement with Xi Jinping.
For example, after the two sessions on May 28, 2020, Li Keqiang told reporters that 600 million people in China have an average monthly income of only about 1,000 yuan (about 150 US dollars). This figure caused an uproar in public opinion and shocked the world. It was the first time that China saw the huge gap between the rich and the poor under the appearance of China’s prosperity. Workers, small town residents, and damage to the environment.
The background of Li Keqiang’s speech was Xi Jinping’s hype about 2020 as the so-called “year of poverty alleviation.” These words directly slapped Xi Jinping’s propaganda about the so-called “Chinese dream”, “a community with a shared future for mankind, and the realization of a well-off society by 2020.”
Sydney: What do you think will happen to Li Keqiang?
Qin Peng: Let’s continue to finish the final term of office tremblingly. A few days ago, when he was still inspecting Sun Yat-sen University in Guangzhou, he openly said to the students: You learn for the sake of learning. This is blatant flattery. It’s actually quite pitiful.
This result has something to do with the CCP system. The prime ministers of the Chinese Communist Party are basically technocrats who do things, while the general secretary/top leader is a party official who is good at fighting, so the results of the prime ministers are mostly not good. For example, Zhou Enlai served Mao Zedong for most of his life, but later Mao Zedong was afraid After he died, he dug his tomb and prevented the doctor from telling him the news of bladder cancer. Later, he couldn’t keep the secret, so he was operated on. Zhao Ziyang’s presidency gave many people hope for food and clothing, but when he became the premier After the general secretary, he was deposed to death by the real party leader Deng Xiaoping because of his support for democracy; Zhu Rongji made drastic reforms and gained a high reputation in the party and the people. In the end, he made great achievements and was jealous of Jiang Ze. One term; Wen Jiabao has always hoped that China will carry out political reforms and prevent the Cultural Revolution from happening again. However, because political reforms will touch the fundamental interests of the CCP, they have also been ostracized from within the party. They are not eloquent. They are ridiculed by the people as the movie king…
Sydney: Yes, this special relationship between the prime minister and the party leader is characteristic of the Chinese Communist Party.
Qin Peng: Yes. A very unique landscape of the party-state.
Sydney: In addition, today we are going to talk about a very special former South Korean president, Roh Tae-woo (Roh Tae-woo), who passed away at the age of 88 on Tuesday. Why should we talk about him? Because in the process of his administration, indirectly or directly, he led the world to misjudge the Beijing Communist regime, and therefore the pattern of today’s world has come into being. He played an insignificant but crucial role in it.
From 1988 to 1993, Roh Tae-woo served as the 13th president of South Korea. He participated in military coups and promoted democratic transformation. “The New York Times” commented on him, “As a transitional and unpopular figure between military rule and civilian rule, he led South Korea through a turbulent period.” “He was the last military supporter. The president of the United States established contact with the communist enemy and survived the country’s brutal transition from dictatorship to democracy, but was ultimately jailed for military rebellion and corruption.”
Qin Peng: In the past two days, the major media in the world have reported his life. It can be said that he has achieved mixed success and reputation. He participated in the Vietnam War. After the assassination of the former South Korean President Park Jeong-hee, he assisted his friend Chun Doo-hwan in a coup d’etat and ascended to the throne of the presidency; but he was also a key figure in leading South Korea’s transition from a military dictatorship to a democratically elected government.
Roh Tae-woo made South Korea not suffer a bloody revolution in its transformation
Many people commemorate him because Roh Tae-woo prevented Korea from experiencing a bloody revolution in its transformation.
Sydney: Yes, he issued the “June 29 Declaration” in the famous “June Democracy Movement”, announcing the constitutional amendment and the resumption of direct presidential elections, realizing the first peaceful transfer of power in South Korea since the 1960s.
However, what we are discussing today is the “Northern Diplomacy” actively promoted by the Roh Tae-woo government during the five-year term of the presidency, that is, the establishment of diplomatic relations with communist countries such as the Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, and the Chinese Communist Party.
We have seen that after he held leadership talks with the Soviet Union in June 1990, he quickly established diplomatic relations with the Soviet Union in September of that year. In August 1992, it severed diplomatic relations with the Republic of China and established diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China. One month later, Lu Taiyu led a large delegation to visit Beijing and met with Chinese leaders such as Jiang Zemin, General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China.
He also promoted the improvement of relations with North Korea. In 1991, South Korea and North Korea joined the United Nations at the same time. His dream was to reunify the two Koreas. However, in this process, the Chinese Communist Party is benefiting silently.
Establishing diplomatic relations with the CCP leads the world to misjudge Beijing
Qin Peng: Yes. The CCP directly established diplomatic relations with South Korea in 1995. This is also one of the reasons why the CCP and North Korea have had a bad relationship for a long time. For the CCP, in this process, it has enjoyed many benefits: on the one hand, it has enjoyed South Korea’s technology, and on the other hand, it has used its special relationship with North Korea, used each other, and bargained with the United States and South Korea.
Of course, as mentioned earlier, he led the world to misjudge Beijing because he won the 1988 Seoul Olympics (now renamed Seoul). Before that, in 1987, Roo Tae-woo, who was then President Chun Doo-hwan’s deputy, was appointed. For the successor of the ruling party, this kind of private acceptance was strongly protested by the people, but Lu Taiyu issued the “June 29 Declaration” on June 29 that year, promising to release political prisoners, end the military dictatorship, and pass a referendum to amend the constitution and Hold fair democratic elections.
This swift response caught the opposition camp by surprise. They fell into infighting because they failed to reach an agreement on the presidential candidate. In the end, Kim Young Sam and Kim Dae Jung ran for the election at the same time. As a result, the votes were dispersed and Lu Tae-woo won. As a result, Tae-woo Roh became the second elected president of South Korea after Park Jeong-hee, and also the first democratically elected president of South Korea through fair and open elections.
This experience, of course, is good news for South Korea. There was no bloodshed and a peaceful transition to democracy. However, the international community has therefore also had an illusion that under the Olympics and the blooming flowers, accompanied by international pressure, this kind of democratic change will also occur in China. Therefore, the international community later brought the CCP into the WTO, and then The right to host the Olympic Games was given to the CCP.
Of course, it turned out to be counterproductive. The CCP took the opportunity to rise and become more authoritarian, abandoning its strategy of keeping a low profile and bidding its time, and began aggressive expansion.
Sydney: So we saw that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Communist Party of China expressed condolences on Lu Taeyu’s death on the 26th and said that he “has made important contributions to promoting the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and South Korea and the development of relations between the two countries.” The CCP media’s evaluation of him was, “He opened a breakthrough in the stalemate between South Korea and North Korea by reconciling with the communist camp at the time.” I think what the party media wants to say, maybe, “He opened up for the Communist Party of China. Breakthrough”.
However, the outside world is still giving positive comments on Roh Tae-woo’s widening of the scope of South Korea’s diplomatic activities. He himself once claimed to have contributed to the promotion of South Korea’s international status and economic development. How do you look at this?
Qin Peng: Indeed, South Korea’s choice of right and left has increased its international influence, and it has also helped South Korea gain a huge market and a rich labor force, and it has achieved economic success.
But on the other hand, it nourishes the CCP. On the issue of the Olympics, why the CCP can’t do it? South Korea can achieve democracy. This has something to do with the original system and background. South Korea itself is an authoritarian society, not a system like the CCP, and Chun Doo-hwan and Roh Tae-woo are normal people with beliefs, but the CCP is not. After being liquidated, the CCP refused to take the initiative to step into history.
Sydney: Yes, why do many people think that he is a great deed, because after Lu Taiyu left office, it was the starting point for his series of official wrongs. In 1995, he was arrested for raising and embezzling secret political donations and became the first former president in South Korean history to be publicly tried.
In 1996, he was charged with crimes of rebellion and civil strife under the Military Criminal Law, bribery, and armed suppression of the Gwangju Democratization Movement. He was sentenced to 17 years in prison and a fine of 262.9 billion won. He was pardoned in 1998 and released from prison.
According to the public last words of Roh Tae-woo’s survivors, he confessed himself before his death, hoping that South Koreans would forgive his shortcomings and faults.
Qin Peng: His charges were the Gwangju incident and anti-corruption. He was tried together with Quan Douhuan at that time, which was called the Grand Trial of the Century.
《Qin Peng Live》 Production group
Editor in charge: Li Hao#