After the session of the Extraordinary Council of Ministers, the President of the Republic, Dina Boluarte, announced this Thursday before the press about the arrival of two El Niño phenomena throughout this year. According to the president, it would be a Coastal Child, which would arrive in the country between April and May, and a Global Child, which would take place in December.
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Boluarte emphasized that “We do not want it to surprise us again like Cyclone Yaku, in which not only the necessary tools have not been had, but also some mayors and governors were looking askance at the use of their economies, even having the legal framework to address the needs of their provinces”.
in conversation with TradeGino Passalacqua, doctor in oceanography and specialist in climate sciences and meteorology, warned that we are already within the phenomenon of the Coastal Child. “The first indications were given from January of this year, it could have been foreseen since December [del 2022]”he explained.
Although both phenomena share characteristics, they are two different processes. Passalacqua clarified that “the process of the Global Child takes months to develop, the Coastal Child begins in weeks”. Additionally, he stressed that the Coastal phenomenon affects from the Galapagos Islands (Ecuador) to the coast of South America, while the Global phenomenon occurs in “the entire basin of the Pacific Ocean”.
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In 2019, a team of researchers carried out a study to find out how the Coastal phenomenon of 2017 developed. “We have done the same analysis [este año] and the processes are the same. Of course, no Child is the same, but the processes that occur in the development of the Coastal Child, in weeks, are the same“said the expert.
Rains will stop in the next month
Patricio Valderrama, former president of the National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology of Peru (Senamhi) clarified to Trade which, despite the expected phenomena, does not mean that it will rain throughout the year. “There is no energy for more rains”, he emphasized. Passalacqua said that, according to forecasts, we will record rainfall until next month.
Despite this, both Valderrama and Passalacqua argued that the next rainy season, which usually starts in September, will be of greater magnitude because the ocean, due to El Niño, will be warmer and the processes that determine the rainfall.
The boss of the National Center for Estimation, Prevention and Reduction of Disaster Risk (Cenepred)Miguel Yamasaki, warned Trade that “definitely not” we are ready to face the consequences of an El Niño phenomenon. The official warned that the necessary works for prevention, which were part of the Reconstruction with Changes, have not been carried out.
Yamasaki explained that they have to work on specific tasks, such as clearing rivers or river defense. “Unfortunately, it remains to do just that, there is no time left to carry out the large projects that were intended to be done”
The spokesperson commented that the local authorities “are engaged in response work” due to emergencies due to rain since the beginning of the year. He even stressed that the vulnerable population has increased in the face of recent events, which is why Cenepred will carry out 61 risk scenarios and around 150 risk assessments in the regions most affected by heavy rainfall.