54% of French notaries expect a drop in property prices. Drawing. (Pixabay / AlexanderStein)
There are more and more notaries betting on falling prices and a slowdown in the real estate market. 54% of them expect prices to drop over the next two months and 71% believe that the number of transactions will decrease according to figures from Immonot, a portal for real estate advertisements published by notarial offices.
For 54% of notaries, real estate prices will fall over the next two months. 44% bet on market stability and only 2% anticipate a rise in prices. This is the conclusion of a barometer published by Immonot, a real estate advertisement portal distributed by notarial offices, and relayed by
The echoes
.
Questioned last September, notaries were less likely to predict a drop (49%). 45% of them expected stability and 6% opted for an increase in property market prices. They therefore seem more convinced of an upcoming price drop and several factors explain this trend.
Increase in credit rates and contributions
The rise in mortgage rates contributes to tense the market. A 25-year loan is trading today at 2.50% excluding insurance, compared to around 1% at the start of the peak year.
The echoes
. This upward situation penalizes first-time buyers and the most modest households. Because at the same time, the banks also ask for larger personal contributions and must respect the instructions of the High Council for Financial Stability (HCSF) which limits the debt ratio to 35%. The wear rate, deemed too low by brokers, automatically excludes “fragile” files.
The context of economic crisis with high inflation does not help. The French have their heads elsewhere. The prospect of a recession is not ideal when it comes to making long-term plans. In this context, 71% of notaries believe that the number of transactions will drop.
81% of notaries recommend selling before buying, compared with 77% in September and 61% in July. In this month of December, 17% recommend the opposite and 2% advise to wait.