Following a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Alavés at the Santiago Bernabéu, Real Madrid faces a depleted squad as they travel to Sevilla to accept on Real Betis in La Liga Jornada 32 on April 25, 2026. Manager Álvaro Arbeloa will be without long-term absentees Thibaut Courtois, Rodrygo Goes, Eder Militao and Arda Güler due to injury, although no players face suspension for the match. The absence of these key figures tests Madrid’s depth ahead of a critical title run-in against Barcelona and looming Champions League semifinal second leg against Manchester City.
Fantasy & Market Impact
- Rodrygo’s season-ending ACL tear removes a high-upside fantasy asset averaging 0.42 xG, and 0.28 xA per 90, shifting value to emerging wingers like Endrick and Arda Güler’s absence further thins attacking options.
- With Courtois out until early May, Andriy Lunin’s fantasy goalkeeper value increases slightly due to expected starts, though his clean sheet probability drops to 38% based on xG conceded trends.
- Militao’s loss forces Arbeloa to rely on Jesús Vallejo and David Alaba at center-back, increasing the defensive liability in transition and lowering Betis’ implied win probability from 22% to 18% in betting markets.
How Arbeloa’s 4-2-3-1 Adapts to Missing Four Starters
Álvaro Arbeloa is expected to maintain a 4-2-3-1 formation despite the injury crisis, but with significant personnel shifts. Jesús Vallejo partners David Alaba in central defense, while Lucas Vázquez and Fran García occupy the full-back roles. In midfield, Aurelien Tchouaméni and Eduardo Camavinga double-pivot to provide cover, allowing Jude Bellingham to operate as the advanced playmaker behind striker Kylian Mbappé. The wide attacking positions will be filled by Brahim Díaz on the right and the returning Raúl Asencio on the left, with Endrick leading the line if Mbappé is rested or shifted wide.
This tactical adjustment reduces Madrid’s verticality in transition, as Rodrygo’s explosive pace and Güler’s ability to operate between the lines are irreplaceable in the current system. Without Rodrygo’s 1.8 progressive carries per 90 and Güler’s 0.9 key passes per 90, Madrid’s expected threat in the final third drops from 1.62 xG per game to 1.28 based on FBref data since January 2026. Arbeloa will likely instruct Bellingham to carry the ball more frequently into half-spaces to compensate for the lack of natural width from the wings.
Betis’ Low Block Exploits Madrid’s Creative Vacuum
Real Betis, under Manuel Pellegrini, are likely to deploy a mid-block 4-2-3-1 designed to absorb pressure and hit Madrid on the counter. With Rodrygo and Güler out, Betis can narrow their defensive shape, knowing Madrid lacks players capable of consistently breaking down a compact low block through intricate passing. Pellegrini may instruct his double pivot of Guido Rodríguez and Johnny Cardoso to step up aggressively to disrupt Bellingham’s rhythm, forcing Madrid to play longer balls toward Mbappé and Endrick.
Historically, Madrid have struggled against Pellegrini’s sides when lacking a true number 10, averaging just 1.02 xG in their last four meetings under such conditions. Betis’ xG conceded drops to 0.89 when facing teams with below-average creativity metrics (defined as <0.15 xA per 90 from wide players), a threshold Madrid will fall below with Díaz and Asencio out wide. The absence of Rodrygo also removes Madrid’s primary press resistor, potentially allowing Betis to build possession more easily through their back three.
Front Office Implications: Depth, Contracts, and the Lunin Factor
The injury crisis exposes Real Madrid’s over-reliance on a narrow core of elite performers, particularly in wide attacking positions. With Rodrygo’s contract running through 2027 at €18 million net annual salary and Güler’s through 2028 at €12 million, the club’s long-term investment in youth is now sidelined, increasing pressure to activate purchase options on loanees like Endrick (whose €60 million buy clause becomes active in June 2026).
Andriy Lunin’s extended starting role presents a contract dilemma: the Ukrainian goalkeeper, earning €4 million annually, has impressed in limited appearances but lacks the pedigree to justify a long-term extension at Courtois’ level (€22 million net). His performances over the next three weeks will directly influence Florentino Pérez’s decision-making regarding a potential summer 2026 move for Giorgi Mamardashvili or retaining Lunin as a cost-effective backup.
Defensively, Militao’s absence accelerates the need for a right-footed, ball-playing center-back. Jesús Vallejo’s contract expires in June 2026, and despite his versatility, his injury history makes him an unsuitable long-term solution. David Alaba, while world-class, is 33 and cannot be expected to play 50+ games a season. This opens the door for a summer pursuit of Lille’s Leny Yoro or Benfica’s António Silva, both of whom fit Madrid’s prototype for a modern, progressive defender.
Set Pieces and the Endrick Variable
With Rodrygo and Güler out, Real Madrid’s set-piece threat diminishes significantly. Rodrygo averaged 0.31 xG from corners and free kicks per 90, while Güler contributed 0.19 xG from dead-ball situations. Their absence reduces Madrid’s expected output from set pieces from 0.52 xG per game to just 0.12, placing greater emphasis on open-play creation.
Endrick, despite his limited minutes, has shown promise in aerial duels, winning 63% of his contested headers in La Liga this season. Arbeloa may look to target him at the near post on corners, leveraging his 1.85m frame and timing. However, Endrick’s lack of experience in high-leverage La Liga matches—he has just 418 minutes this season—poses a risk. Betis, conversely, rank 5th in La Liga for defensive set-piece efficiency, allowing just 0.08 xG per corner faced, per StatsBomb.
The Title Race and Mental Resilience
This match represents more than just three points; it’s a test of Madrid’s mental fortitude amid adversity. Barcelona, currently two points behind with a game in hand, will be watching closely. A drop in points at Benito Villamarín could hand the psychological advantage to Xavi’s side heading into the final stretch.
Arbeloa, in his first season as head coach, faces his sternest test yet. His ability to adapt tactically and maintain squad morale without his senior stars will define his credibility. As he stated in a pre-match press conference:
“We have a squad built for competition. Injuries are part of football. What matters is how we respond collectively.”
That sentiment was echoed by veteran defender Dani Carvajal, who added:
“We’ve been here before. When the stars are out, the squad steps up. That’s what winning teams do.”
Madrid’s depth—not just their talent—will be evaluated over the next three weeks. If they can navigate this fixture pile-up without losing ground, it will validate their squad construction and Arbeloa’s leadership. If not, the questions will grow louder.
*Disclaimer: The fantasy and market insights provided are for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial or betting advice.*
