household living index (KR-ECI)Nov.22 Highest in 14 months Thai households are less concerned about the cost of living burden, such as the level of goods prices and expenses. While inflation remained a factor dragging down spending demand at the end of the year.
11 Dec. 2022 – Kasikorn Research Center stated that The Household Economic and Living Index (KR-ECI) in November 2022 rose to 35.0, a 14-month high from 33.8 in October 2022, but still below the pre-cow level. COVID-19, while the three-month KR-ECI index also rose to 36.4 from 35.7 in October 2022, reflecting that households are less concerned about the cost burden. Corresponding to the Thai inflation index in November 2022 which weakened for the third month in a row at 5.55%
Prices for many items, such as vegetables and fruits such as kale, lentils, cabbage and rice, rose at a slower pace. Continuously decreasing for the second month, while Thailand still holds the retail price of diesel fuel at 35 baht per liter for the sixth month, as well as the cost of electricity, which is now at 4.72 baht per unit until December. 65 is likely to be pegged until early next year. while the recovery of the tourism sector supporting domestic consumption and employment to continue to improve
However, households are still concerned about income going forward. Reflected through the index, which was slightly downward from the previous month. (More worrying) from concerns about salaries and compensation. Because the Thai economy is still in a recovery period.
In addition, going forward, it is likely to face many challenging factors from the global economic outlook that is at risk of slowing down. which will drag down the demand for Thai products
Household Living Index Nov. The highest in 14 months, together with the volume of orders from China that is still highly uncertain. Although China has begun to relax measures to control COVID. by Thai exports in October 2022 facing contraction for the first time in 20 months
The Kasikorn Research Center views that Overall, Thai exports this year will grow lower than the previous estimate of 7.8%YoY. This may affect the manufacturing sector and employment in the country. In addition, the Kasikorn Research Center expects that farm income in 2023 may contract by 0.8%YoY due to price pressure.
Kasikorn Research Center conducted a further survey on households’ party and travel plans by the end of 2022. It was found that 38% of households planned to organize a party with friends/family. already high, and another 22% have no plan because they still don’t trust the situation of COVID-19
Kasikorn Research Center expects Thai domestic travel in the last two months of the year will increase by 6.8%YoY.
In addition, when asked about their expectations for household spending in the last month of 2022, 54% of households expected spending to increase from the previous month. The expected increase in expenses can be divided into Expenses for dinner (38%), purchases of raffle gifts (26%), donations (18%), travel expenses (17%), and others such as giving money (1%)
in the future Economic recovery and household livelihoods are still fragile due to many key risk factors. In particular, world energy prices, although they have started to decline, are still subject to risks that may fluctuate.
In addition, domestic inflation may not slow down amid the continued transmission of costs by entrepreneurs to consumers, coupled with the government’s reduction in energy subsidies.
While the world’s major economy like the United States and the European Union It is likely to enter a technical recession next year, which may affect the continuation of the Thai economic recovery.
In addition, the policy rate direction of the MPC (by 2023, it is expected to rise to 1.75-2.00%) may affect household finance costs from the tendency to pass more interest rates by commercial banks. Which is now beginning to see the direction of raising interest rates for retail customers of various banks.
However, various economic stimulus measures that are expected to become clearer before the end of the year, such as tax relief measures, must be monitored. measures to stimulate spending and tourism, etc., which may need to consider the consistency of the measures with additional target groups
