Domestic gasoline and diesel price cuts have been realized as scheduled on August 24. “Securities Daily” reporters found that with the “five-straight” drop in oil prices, the cost of oil for end users has dropped, but for truck drivers who run 5,000 kilometers a month, the current diesel price is still high, which is different from last year’s In comparison, the average monthly oil cost is still at least 3,000 yuan more.
Many industry insiders interviewed by reporters believe that in the short term, the game of supply expectations between oil-producing countries is intensifying, and it is expected that the international crude oil price may fluctuate around US$90/barrel to US$110/barrel; in the medium term, the price center Downshift is possible.
slightly lower cost
But not enough to “quench your thirst”
On August 24, a new round of domestic oil price cuts was realized. This was the first “five-straight drop” in the year, and it has been more than three and a half years since the last round of “five-straight drop” of oil prices (December 28, 2018).
According to the reporter’s calculation, after the “five consecutive declines” of oil prices, the cumulative decline of diesel oil has reached 1270 yuan / ton, and the discounted price of No. 0 diesel has been reduced by 1.08 yuan. According to the data of the oil price network, the price of No. 0 diesel in at least 21 places in the country is around 7 yuan.
“Recently, the price of diesel has been reduced, but compared with last year, the current drop is still not enough to ‘quench one’s thirst’.” On August 24, Mr. Xiong, a truck driver who travels between Dehui City, Jilin Province and Harbin City, Heilongjiang Province all the year round, was accepting ” In an interview, a reporter from Securities Daily said that the fuel consumption per kilometer of the heavy truck he drives is about 1.8 to 2 yuan. Compared with the average oil price last year, a round trip (from Dehui to Harbin) now costs at least 1.8 yuan to 2 yuan. It will cost an extra 300 yuan; if calculated according to the frequency of a train every three days, it will cost an extra 3,000 to 5,000 yuan per month.
In addition to individuals, the rise and fall of oil prices has a greater impact on larger express logistics companies. For example, some relevant listed companies stated in their 2021 annual reports that fuel costs are an important part of transportation costs. Fuel prices are affected by many force majeures. Since 2022, affected by geopolitics, international crude oil prices have continued to soar, and domestic oil prices have also continued to rise. Fluctuations in fuel prices may have a significant adverse impact on the company’s operating results.
On August 24, a reporter from “Securities Daily” called a well-known listed express logistics company as an investor. A person from the company’s securities department said that oil prices mainly affect the company’s transportation costs. The drop in oil prices will indeed bring about a reduction in transportation costs, but the recent drop in transportation costs has not been accurately measured. If the follow-up oil price has been lowered, the company’s transportation costs in the third quarter should be significantly lower than that in the second quarter.
Overall, while oil prices have fallen recently, they are still high compared to last year. In this regard, Hu Yan, a researcher at China Logistics Information Center, said in an interview with a reporter from “Securities Daily” that the drop in oil prices will indeed help ease the operating pressure of enterprises to a certain extent, but on the whole, in the context of the current drop in demand, The cost pressure of enterprises is still not small, not only from the transportation cost of oil prices, but also from labor costs and capital costs. To this end, enterprises must cultivate good internal skills. On the one hand, we must save money and reduce unnecessary expenses; on the other hand, we must strive to open source and find new growth points in business. At present, there are many model innovations and business innovations in the upstream and downstream of the supply chain. A very important point is to achieve innovation around reducing costs, improving efficiency, and solving pain points.
Taking SF Holding as an example, in response to a recent investor’s question on “Will the sharp drop in oil prices affect the company’s operations?” Under these conditions, there will be elasticity and lag in the cost response. The company further improves the efficiency of vehicle use and hedges the risk of oil price fluctuations through overall operation mode optimization, such as network planning and vehicle operation mode optimization. From the perspective of air transportation, for SF Holding, nearly half of the aviation fuel cost is on international routes, and the price of this part is adjusted flexibly. In the future, the integration of Kerry freight forwarding will further increase the loading rate of the return journey, thereby hedging the fluctuation of oil prices. Subsequent companies will pay close attention to the structural changes and impacts brought about by changes in fuel prices, and adjust business strategies.
Weak operation in the short term
Or oscillate around $90/barrel
Judging from the latest round of refined oil price adjustment cycle (August 9-August 22), the overall international oil price showed a downward trend. According to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission’s Price Monitoring Center, on average, London Brent oil prices and New York WTI oil prices fell by 4.83% and 3.23% respectively compared with the previous price adjustment cycle.
According to the analysis of the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, during the price adjustment cycle, the data of major global economies is not good, the global economic growth momentum may be slowing down, the negative impact of high inflation in some western countries is also increasing, and the market is worried about the decline in crude oil demand. Oil prices continued to fall amid shocks. In addition, OPEC lowered its forecast for global economic growth this year by 0.1 percentage points, and lowered its crude oil demand by 260,000 barrels per day this year and next. Citi, Barclays and other institutions have also lowered their price expectations. Negative factors in the market were significantly amplified, with open interest in U.S. crude oil futures falling to the lowest level since January 2015. At the same time, the US dollar index hit a new high in nearly 20 years, which also weighed on the price of crude oil denominated in US dollars.
Wind data shows that since August 11, Eastern Time, the U.S. dollar index has been rising.
“It can be seen that international oil prices have fallen one after another recently. In addition to the fact that the strengthening of the US dollar has a certain inhibitory effect on crude oil and other commodities, the main reason is that the market is worried that the prospect of a global economic recession will drag down the demand for crude oil.” Zhou Maohua, macro researcher of the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank, told Securities A reporter from the Daily said that in the short term, judging from the relevant economic indicators released by the world’s major economies, the global economic growth is still slowing down, inflation remains high, and the world’s major central banks are forced to continue to tighten policies, so international oil prices continue to rise. Facing the pressure of slowing global demand and tightening financial conditions; however, due to the ongoing geopolitical conflict, the international crude oil supply is structurally unbalanced. Therefore, it is expected that international crude oil will still find it difficult to get out of the range-bound pattern in the short term. Fluctuates around $90/barrel to $110/barrel.
In an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily, Chen Tong, a senior analyst at Yide Futures, said that in the short term, the key to affecting the trend of oil prices lies in the progress of the restart of the Iran nuclear deal. If the Iran nuclear deal comes to fruition, there is room for an increase of 1.25 million barrels per day of crude oil production. In addition, Iran has 100 million barrels of crude oil and condensate inventories that can be put on the market almost immediately. However, it is reported that if Iranian oil returns to the market, OPEC+ may choose to reduce oil production. From this point of view, the short-term game over supply expectations between oil-producing countries is intensifying, and Brent oil prices are expected to remain at $95/barrel to $100. USD/barrel range operation.
The price monitoring center of the National Development and Reform Commission predicts that there are many uncertain factors affecting oil prices in the short term, and oil prices will still run weakly.
From a medium-term perspective, many industry insiders interviewed by reporters from Securities Daily believe that the international crude oil price center is expected to move down.
Liu Siyuan, chief analyst of Lead Show Finance, told the “Securities Daily” reporter that at present, the short-term decline in international crude oil prices has been realized, and it is expected that international crude oil prices will fluctuate around 90 US dollars per barrel. However, considering that the weakness of US economic data will be further transmitted to the demand side, it is expected that there may be further corrections in international crude oil prices in the medium term.
According to Li Yan, an analyst in the crude oil industry of Longzhong Information, in the medium term, there is still uncertainty about whether the Iran issue can be implemented, and the Fed may raise interest rates again in mid-to-late September. These are the main factors affecting international crude oil prices. .
In Zhou Maohua’s view, in the medium term, crude oil needs to return to fundamentals, that is, it depends on whether the prospects for global economic recovery and the supply side of crude oil are improving. From a trend perspective, due to the continued inflationary pressure, tight global financial conditions, superimposed spillover effects of the epidemic and geopolitical conflicts, and structural problems, global demand conflicts may be more than supply disturbances, so it is expected that the international crude oil price center is expected to move down. (Reporter Du Yumeng Liu Qi)
[Editor in charge: Cao Jing]