2024-03-16 10:45:42
The recent significant correction in the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum has attracted market attention. 10x Research analysis pointed out the impact of multiple factors, including the fragility of the market structure, the implementation of technology upgrades and changes in ETF capital flows. It predicted that Bitcoin may fall to $63,000 and then rebound, and that copycats and Meme may have reached a short-term top.
(Preliminary summary: “When will the Bitcoin bull market peak?” Seven indicators can help you find the right time to get off)
(Background supplement: Bitcoin is flushing up and down! Several “key data” such as ETFs and stablecoins can help you judge the market outlook)
Recently, Bitcoin and Ethereum have experienced significant price corrections, which has attracted widespread attention from market participants. 10x Research releases latest reportexpressthere are multiple factors at work behind this phenomenon, including problems with market structure, the implementation of technology upgrades, changes in ETF capital inflows, and fluctuations in overall market sentiment, and predicts that Bitcoin may fall to $63,000 before resuming its upward trend, the report The reasons are as follows:
Bitcoin market structure is fragile
First, in terms of market structure, 10x Research emphasized the fragility of the Bitcoin market structure, pointing out that Bitcoin experienced an “outside day”, that is, on the same trading day, the price of Bitcoin reached a new high, but also fell to the previous day below the low point. This price action shows the extreme volatility and uncertainty in the market and hints at the possibility of a deeper and longer correction, leading 10x Research analysts to worry about Bitcoin’s future returns, arguing that they will become more volatile and unpredictable. predict.
Extended reading: A big shakeup! Bitcoin “broke through 73,000 US dollars” and then surged to a new historical high, once falling below 69,000 US dollars, and Ethereum pin 3830
ETF inflows slow
Although Bitcoin spot ETF flows still showed net inflows, 10x Research reported that Bitcoin failed to maintain its upward momentum during most U.S. trading hours. Instead, its price rose only hours before the U.S. ETF opened, driven largely by confidence in continued buying by BlackRock clients.
10x Research also noted that Bitcoin failed to rebound during last night’s European trading session – the first time in a while. Buyers pre-purchasing ETFs appear to have disappeared, and with recent underperformance of ETF inflows, the market is concerned about the “sustainability” of ETF inflows. Although Grayscale’s sell-off is relatively low at the same time, the lack of market confidence, This led to a sharp sell-off in Bitcoin during the Asian trading session.
ETH faces challenges, may drag down BTC
Ethereum, on the other hand, has seen its recent gains largely driven by expectations for the Dencun upgrade, but now it faces a test of its basic profitability. Despite benefiting from the DeFi summer and NFT minting bull market, its current valuation appears disconnected from fundamentals. Additionally, the Dencun upgrade is expected to primarily benefit second-layer blockchains, potentially diluting Ethereum’s gains unless transaction volumes surge.
As for the prospects of Ethereum ETF approval, the report stated that it seems less optimistic, with analysts estimating that the probability of approval is only 30%. This uncertainty may make Ethereum drag down Bitcoin in the sell-off caused by the implementation of the Dencun upgrade.
Extended reading: Cancun upgrade completed》Is the gas fee of Ethereum L2 really reduced significantly? ARB, OP, STRK…coin price performance?
Copycats and Memes May Have Reached a Short-Term Top
In addition to threatening to drag down Bitcoin, altcoins closely related to Ethereum may also have reached a short-term peak, especially meme coins like Shiba (SHIB), which triggered an explosion of transactions in the past 2-3 weeks. However, South Korea The decline in memecoin trading volume hints at the possible peak of memecoin mania last week and foreshadows an upcoming market correction.
In addition, recent inflation data and central bank officials’ cautious attitude towards cutting interest rates have further dampened market sentiment.
Extended reading: Is there any hope that the FOMC will cut interest rates next week?U.S. CPI exceeded expectations again in February, experts predict the Fed will not let go until then
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