Los financial dollars began to climb positions in recent days, even exceeding the price of the casual dollar. today the dollar Cash with Liquidation operates around $394, although yesterday Monday it reached $400. For its part, the MEP or stock market dollar is close to $380, while the blue remains around $376.
The movement is not accidental for the analysts consulted by PROFILE, who point to the investor appetite to seek shelter in financial dollars, far from staying with the Argentine pesos. And because the debt swap of the previous week was not “so good” either. So indicated Damián of Paceeconomist and director of Focus Market who explained that “the expectations of (Sergio) Massa’s debt placement last week were not as expected, which indicates that in some way the holders of pesos seek refuge in financial dollars,” he explained.
Nobody wants “small face” dollars and they accumulate in the banks
Something similar to what the Lic in Business Administration Gastón Lentini perceives, who sees it as part of the pressure that the “legal” exchange rates will suffer in our market because the debt swap in pesos was not as good as expected.
“At the same time, the harvest is getting worse and worse and in turn, Although the IMF made the reserve goal more flexible, it did not make the spending goal more flexible. This combo makes all investors think that we have pesos is that there will be minimally more inflation. AND The main hedge that every market player has is the dollar first” assured.
And the point was shared by the also economist Salvador Di Stéfano, who assured that “alternative dollars andThey are going up because there are many investors in the market who do not want to buy the government bonds and bills“. Although the letters, for example, already have a TNA of 85%which implies 10 points above what is a fixed term rate.
In addition, a seasonal issue and imports
For his part, the financial analyst Nicolas Olive Durantrader de Rudolph, also in the phenomenon there is a seasonal leg. Among other things, he recalled that it is usual for these dollars to be relatively arbitrated. “In the period from December to February there is usually more demand for physical dollars, which added to the restrictions to make the purchase via MEP, caused the gap to reach 25/30 Argentine pesos in January between the MEP 350 dollar and the blue that traded between $375 and $380″.
However, for Olivé Durán, “After the vacation period and Christmas bonuses –which are seasonal processes-, the demand for dollars in the blue segment tends to decrease and the MEP and CCL demand remains active”.
At the same time, the analyst added to his gaze that the demand for the CCL is in turn driven by the limitation of imports.
“In other words, imports are being enabled but their payments via the MULC are not being enabled. There are several mechanisms to achieve this, all consistent and focused on ensuring that the BCRA does not lose reserves, avoiding or postponing payments as much as possible,” he said, recalling that this situation generates stress for SMEs due to lack of inputs and they end up making alternative operations to obtain those dollars and pay for imports.
“De facto it is an exchange rate split”he assured and added that “although these companies are often limited to accessing dollars through the stock market, there are mechanisms for them to do so.”
Finally, the International Monetary Fund factor was added, while the organization “asked the government to stop intervening in the CCL / MEP through the purchase and sale of bonds; and generally what the government did was put a ceiling on the price of these values”, he stressed.
The blue dollar situation
Regarding why the blue does not jump as the financiers have done, the business adviser Salvador Di Stéfano explained that “those who have blue dollars, in a recessive scenario, only have the option of selling them to balance the numbers of their company or of his family; while in the cases in which the saver has white money, what happens is a transfer of instruments in white pesos to white dollars in the market,” he explained.
external context
For his part, Di Pace also added the external run run, with the international context and what has happened with the Silicon Valley Bank.
“In the Argentine case, there is a change in trend in the search for refuge in financial dollars,” he assured, while there is a greater level of distance with the Argentine peso and a greater refuge in financial dollars. “Now the expectation is set on today’s inflation data because, if a saver has a placement of more than 10 million pesos, which is giving a rate of 96 or 97%, it would no longer be convenient for him to stay in a fixed term” , indicated and reaffirmed that the cost of living data for February “will be key to see what decision the Central Bank makes next Thursday in terms of its monetary policy, whether it raises it or leaves it stable, which in turn it will also determine the movement on financial dollars,” he said.
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