―The mass production scenario of “state-of-the-art semiconductors” that will start moving, the new stage where “domestic production” shines is a treasure trove of transformative stocks―
The Tokyo stock market on the 10th of the weekend saw a wide range of sales, including major stocks, and the Nikkei Stock Average fell sharply for the first time in six days. The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting, which attracted attention, was to maintain the status quo. There was also a scene where the temporary decline spread to over 500 yen, and the bullish mood so far was blown away. However, from the standpoint of individual stocks, such selling pressure from the macro side often provides a place to pick up good stocks.
In the stock market right now, the subject of high attention where strong and weak views are opposed is “semiconductors”. While market conditions are expected to deteriorate, it is also true that there are a number of stocks in Japan and the US that have bottomed out in the early fall of last year and are now back on track. Stock prices are said to be a mirror that reflects the future of the economy. The earnings environment in the semiconductor-related sector seems to be shrouded in darkness, and stock price trends seem to eloquently tell us that the dawn is near. In the Tokyo market as well, the timing is approaching for the group of stocks that had been driving the market until a few years ago to regain their former momentum.
The darkness before dawn is the place to buy
Semiconductor inventory adjustment pressure has left a deep mark on the performance of semiconductor manufacturers around the world. In the memory market in particular, the rapid slowdown in sales of smartphones has worsened the balance between supply and demand, and the slump in business performance of South Korea’s Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix has become a hot topic.Lasertec in Japan <6920> [東証Ｐ]Revised its forecast for orders received for the fiscal year ending June 2023 significantly downward from its previous plan, giving industry insiders a negative surprise.
But these are cases where the adage that it is darkest before the dawn is true. The semiconductor market, which has deteriorated since the summer of last year, is starting to see the light that indicates the exit of the tunnel ahead. From next year onwards, the demand for updating data centers will become full-fledged, and the expansion of the global metaverse market and the electronics arming of automobiles will also serve as tailwinds. In addition, the social implementation of artificial intelligence (AI), which continues to evolve more rapidly than expected, such as “Chat GPT,” is accelerating, and this is expected to be a factor to boost semiconductor demand. Some estimate that semiconductor demand will reach $1 trillion (approximately 136 trillion yen) in 2030, double the level of last year. Structurally, the semiconductor market will continue to expand and not burst. Even if the valley ahead looks deep, it is only a slight ups and downs in the long run.
Appearance of “Rapidus” responsible for the revival of Hinomaru semiconductors
Despite the political background of US-China friction, it is a change that cannot be overlooked that the public and private sectors in Japan are stepping up to invest in the semiconductor business. Under such circumstances, “Rapidus” appeared on the stage of the new history of the domestic semiconductor industry with great fanfare as a new Hinomaru semiconductor company.The company is Toyota Motor Corporation <7203> [東証Ｐ]Sony Group <6758> [東証Ｐ]、ＮＴＴ <9432> [東証Ｐ]、ＮＥＣ <6701> [東証Ｐ]Denso <6902> [東証Ｐ]It was established with the investment of such prominent companies that represent Japan, and plans to mass-produce state-of-the-art semiconductors called “two-nano products.” It has already announced that it will establish a manufacturing base (factory) in Chitose City, Hokkaido, and it is said that the investment amount is expected to be around 5 trillion yen.
In Japan, there are many semiconductor manufacturing equipment manufacturers that rank among the top in the world in each process of semiconductor production. There is no doubt that the emergence of new demand for semiconductor equipment investment accompanying the emergence of Rapidus will be a strong follow-up wind for manufacturers of manufacturing equipment and materials. At present, it is certain that the global semiconductor inventory adjustment pressure is continuing. However, this does not cast a shadow over the dynamism brought about by the revival of the Hinomaru semiconductor in cutting-edge fields.
On the other hand, TSMC, the world’s largest contract semiconductor manufacturer
In the stock market, there is a wide range of people looking for semiconductor-related stocks. However, not all of them will be able to ride the growth trend thanks to the expansion of the semiconductor market. The key is whether or not the company possesses unique strengths. In this top feature, we have entered six promising stocks that can be called wings of growth among companies positioned in the semiconductor industry.
●Semiconductors/Six brands riding an updraft in the new stage
◎Shinko Electric Industry<6967> [東証Ｐ]
The company is a major manufacturer of high-performance semiconductor packages for personal computers and servers, and accounts for about 90% of its sales overseas.us intel
The growth in performance since the fiscal year ending March 2021 deserves special mention. At the stage of operating income, we expect to increase 7.2 times in the fiscal year ending March 2021, triple in the fiscal year ending March 2022, and increase 30% year on year to 93 billion yen in the fiscal year ending March 2023. It is expected to significantly renew its record high profits. We are actively promoting capital investment to increase production capacity, and are devoted to expanding our business.
In terms of medium- to long-term fluctuations, stock prices formed an inverse trinity with three-point bottoms in early July, early October, and late December last year. With this earning power, it can be said that the PER 7 times range is extremely undervalued. Renewal of 5,990 yen, the highest price since listing in March last year, is not a high hurdle from a medium-term perspective.
◎Grow cell<9995> [東証Ｐ]
Renesas Electronics is a semiconductor trading company and one of the world’s leading automotive microcomputers. <6723> [東証Ｐ]Mainly handles the products of Another feature is that while it is a trading company, it also has the aspect of a manufacturer. The company’s proprietary “semiconductor strain sensor” is ultra-compact and highly accurate, and plays a major role in the digital transformation (DX) of companies regardless of industry.
The recent growth in performance is also remarkable, and against the backdrop of the strong performance of automotive Renesas products, operating income for the fiscal year ending March 2011 is expected to increase by 36% year-on-year to 1.3 billion yen, after two upward revisions during the term. . Furthermore, double-digit profit growth is expected in the fiscal year ending March 2012 as well.
From the stock price index side, it is clear that the evaluation is insufficient, and while continuing to pay an annual dividend of 12 yen, the PBR of 0.5x level includes the possibility of a significant level correction. Since the end of February, the stock price has been trending higher, but it still feels reasonably priced. Sooner or later, we can expect the stock price to move toward the high price of 550 yen, which is the high price of 550 yen in January 2021. .
◎Asahi Diamond Industry<6140> [東証Ｐ]
The company is a specialized manufacturer of diamond tools and ranks among the top domestic companies, but its grinding tools for silicon wafers have won projects related to semiconductor capital investment, which is in high demand worldwide. The fixed-abrasive electroplated diamond wire, which demonstrates superiority in high-precision cutting ability and long life, contributes to the company’s earnings as a strong product. We are currently promoting four projects centered on electronics and semiconductors, and are focusing on improving domestic manufacturing bases.
In the fiscal year ending March 2011, while capturing a high level of demand for silicon semiconductors and compound semiconductors, the effects of plant restructuring costs and rising power costs are hindering profits. However, operating income is expected to increase by 3% year-on-year to 2.9 billion yen.
The stock price rose on the Taiyo Line in late February due to stock supply and demand speculation such as reports of large holdings by specific shareholders, and has continued to rise steadily since then, but the PBR 0.7x level still has room for correction. For the first time in about 4 years and 10 months since May 2018, the price will reach the ¥1,000 level.
◎Fuso Chemical Industry<4368> [東証Ｐ]
While we have a global market share for fruit acids such as malic acid and citric acid, our profit driver is ultra-pure colloidal silica, which is essential for semiconductor wafer abrasives, and is a top global niche player. occupies This product is the main raw material for the final polishing slurry for silicon wafers, and is indispensable for the miniaturization of semiconductors, which requires high nano-level precision.
Both the top line and profits are in a rapid growth phase. Following the significant increase in sales and profit in the previous term, both of which reached record highs, the fiscal year ending March 2011 was also strong, with net sales of 68.5 billion yen (up 23% year-on-year) and operating income of 17.1 billion yen (up 14% year-on-year). Growth is expected, and continuous peak renewal is expected.
The stock price has returned to the bottom of 3,060 yen in October last year, and the foot is clear, and the 25-day moving average line is the support line. is large. It is highly probable that the uptrend will be maintained in the medium to long term with a view to 5,000 yen, which is the highest price since last year.
◎ QD laser<6613> [東証Ｇ]
Widely develop semiconductor laser solutions in the industrial and medical fields. We provide high value-added semiconductor lasers by making full use of multiple unique technologies such as cutting-edge epitaxy technology and quantum dot technology. We are also developing retinal scanning laser eyewear for the visually impaired. The company’s current performance continues to be in the red, but its high growth capacity in the future is attracting attention.
We have concluded a collaborative agreement with Sony for the sale of retinal projection equipment, and our collaboration with a major IT company is highly evaluated as leading to a profit base for future business expansion. Although it was listed on the old Mothers market in February 2009, it has formed a high price of 2070 yen in the initial move of the secondary. After that, although it was forced to make a large adjustment, the market price of the 500 yen level has fallen more than 70% from the high price, and it seems to be safe to judge that it is at the bottom.
Although there are uncertainties in terms of supply and demand for stocks, such as the exercise of stock acquisition rights and short sales of foreign-affiliated securities, the market capitalization is just under 20 billion yen, and there is a lot of room for the price to rise if the company’s proprietary technology begins to bloom. It will be.
◎Tri-Chemical Laboratory<4369> [東証Ｐ]
We deal with high-purity chemical materials for advanced semiconductors, and we specialize in high-mix, low-volume production. A world leader in insulating film materials with low dielectric constants. The company has a high market share in high-value-added products, and as semiconductors continue to miniaturize and become more highly integrated, there will be more room for the company to play an active role in the future. Although the overseas sales ratio accounts for 70%, it will also play an important role in the mass production of Hinomaru Semiconductor’s cutting-edge products for the domestic market.
It can be said that the company’s performance is literally making a leap forward, and both sales and profits are continuing to hit record highs. Under these circumstances, the financial results for the term ending January 2011 are scheduled to be announced on the 15th of this month, and this result will attract a great deal of attention. Operating income for the term ending Jan. 2011 is expected to increase by 22% year-on-year to 3,621 million yen, but it should be noted that the earnings forecast for the term ending Jan. 2024 may be presented conservatively. Thing.
However, the medium-term growth scenario looks bleak. If there is a scene where the financial results are announced, we would like to see it as a perfect buying opportunity. The market capitalization is still around 80 billion yen, and from a long-term perspective, it has the potential to double the stock price from here.
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