Retail industry outlook for the first quarter ‘cold’… Expect only online and department stores

Hello. Reporter Jinhee Kim |

The retail industry’s economic outlook index fell below the reference level (100) for two consecutive quarters due to the re-spread of COVID-19. The retail economy, which has been recovering little by little after the COVID-19 pandemic, is shrinking again.

The Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI) announced on the 9th that as a result of a recent survey of 1,000 retailers, the retail business outlook index for the first quarter of this year was 96, down 3 points from the previous quarter.

If the index exceeds 100, it means that there are many companies that have a more positive outlook for the quarter’s economy than the previous quarter, and if it is below 100, the opposite is true.

With the spread of Omicron, a new mutant virus of COVID-19, and measures to strengthen social distancing, the emotional economy fell below the standard for two consecutive quarters following the last quarter.

Pros and cons differed by industry. Online shopping (107) showed the highest forecast on expectations that non-face-to-face consumption will continue due to the re-spread of COVID-19.

Online shopping has exceeded the standard (100) for six consecutive quarters since the fourth quarter of 2020.

The Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI) said, “Due to the prolonged COVID-19, various online business models such as online shopping and mobile gifts have spread rapidly. analyzed.

In the face-to-face industry, only department stores (102) exceeded the standard, giving a positive outlook.

The Korea Council explained that as the spread of COVID-19 made it difficult for consumption activities such as overseas travel and concert viewing, the expectation that there would be ‘retaliatory consumption’ for high-priced products such as luxury goods and furniture worked, the Korea Council explained.

The large mart economic outlook index stood at 88, indicating that the negative outlook prevailed. The number of customers visiting the store decreased due to the application of the quarantine pass in accordance with the strengthened distance, and fierce competition with the online market acted as a negative factor.

Convenience stores (85) fell 3 points from the previous quarter due to the influence of the winter season when floating population decreased, and supermarkets (82) had the lowest index among all industries due to intensifying competition with online channels.

Respondents cited weakening consumer sentiment (43.7%), rising costs (20.2%), inflation (17.8%), intensifying competition within the industry (13.2%), and continued distribution restrictions (4.1%) as factors for management difficulties.

Seo Duk-ho, head of the Korea Merchant Distribution and Logistics Agency, said, “Due to the prolonged Corona 19, online and non-face-to-face consumption trends are no longer limited to specific generations and items.” “Only fundamental improvement and innovation through digital transformation can ensure sustainable growth. There will be,” he said.

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