RISE IN SIGHT IN EUROPE, WALL STREET OPTIMISM WINS
PARIS (Archyde.com) – The main European stock markets are expected to rise on Monday in the wake of strong growth on Wall Street on Friday, as investor optimism about the US economic situation has so far outweighed the unpleasant surprises from China. .
Futures contracts on indices suggest an increase of 0.3% for the Dax in Frankfurt, 0.45% for the FTSE 100 in London and 0.37% for the EuroStoxx 50. As for the CAC 40 in Paris, it could take around 0.4% according to the first indications available.
On Wall Street, the rise accelerated at the end of the session on Friday and the leading indices finished close to their highs for the day, confirming the renewed confidence sparked by the previous days’ figures on inflation in the United States. .
The hope of having passed the peak of the rise in American prices, which could deter the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates again by three quarters of a point next month, therefore remains the key determinant of general sentiment. Steps.
However, the atmosphere is less favorable in China, where the central bank created a surprise by announcing a ten basis point drop in two of its main key rates after the figures below expectations for industrial production (+ 3.8% over one year in July), retail sales (+2.7%) and new bank loans (679 billion yuan last month against 1.100 billion expected).
“The decision shows that the authorities were shocked by the credit figures in July as well as a general deceleration in economic activity,” noted Kaiwen Wang, China strategist for Clocktower Group.
In Europe, the upcoming stock market session should be calm, particularly in Paris since the day is a public holiday in France. In the United States, the only important indicator of the day will be the “Empire State” activity index, expected at 12:30 GMT, but the main event of the week will be the publication of monthly retail sales figures on Wednesday.
A WALL STREET
The New York Stock Exchange ended sharply higher on Friday, signing a fourth consecutive week in the green as investors continue to bet on an ebb of inflationary tensions and a slowdown in the rise in interest rates.
The Dow Jones Index gained 1.27%, or 424.38 points, to 33,761.05, the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 72.88 points, or 1.73%, to 4,280.15 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced by 267.27 points (+ 2.09%) to 13,047.18.
The S&P-500 and the Nasdaq thus posted a fourth positive weekly performance in a row with respective gains of 3.26% and 3.08%.
In a context of falling inflation, Wall Street notably benefited from the first results of the University of Michigan’s monthly survey on household morale: its confidence index, at 55.1, confirms the rebound that began on last month after its all-time low in June.
Futures on major indices so far suggest an open lower by around 0.2%.
IN ASIA
On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index gains 1.15% with less than an hour of closing, the momentum given by Wall Street prevailing on the news from China like the downward revision of Japanese growth in the second quarter, at an annualized rate of 2.2%.
The results of companies provide additional support for the trend: the distributor Pan Pacific, owner of the Don Quijote brand, jumped 11.81% after raising its annual profit forecast.
In China, the Shanghai SSE Composite and the CSI 300 are virtually unchanged after the day’s indicators and the surprise cut in key rates.
CHANGES
On the foreign exchange market, the easing of monetary policy by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) caused the yuan to fall to its lowest level in a week against the dollar.
The confirmation of the slowdown in the Chinese economy is also weighing on the Australian and New Zealand dollars.
Against a basket of reference currencies, the US dollar appreciated by 0.1% and the euro returned to around 1.0250 (-0.10%).
RATE
Yields on US Treasury bonds fell in Asia, to 2.8403% for ten-year securities and 3.2466% for two-year ones.
They thus continue the decline started on Friday after the announcement of a drop in import prices in the United States last month.
OIL
The oil market is falling, penalized both by the indicators of the day in China, the world’s largest importer of crude, and by the declarations of Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest exporter, on a possible increase in its production.
Brent fell 1% to $97.17 a barrel and US light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) 1% to $91.17.
(Written by Marc Angrand, with Jason Xue and Brenda Goh in Shanghai)