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The United States said on Friday that Russia could invade Ukraine “at any time” in the coming days, raising the specter of war in Europe more than ever. Faced with this threat, phone calls multiplied to relaunch the dialogue.
US President Joe Biden, who is spending the weekend at the Camp David residence, will speak on the phone on Saturday with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, following a phone call on Friday between their heads of state- major. A call is also planned for Saturday between the master of the Kremlin and the French head of state Emmanuel Macron.
“We continue to see signs of Russian escalation, including the arrival of new forces on the Ukrainian border,” White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan warned after a virtual meeting of key Western leaders.
“An invasion could occur at any time if Vladimir Putin gives the order”, he added, assuring that it could even “start during the Olympic Games” in Beijing which end on February 20. According to him, such an offensive is a “very, very real possibility”, but American intelligence does not know whether the Russian president “has made a final decision” or not.
“Strong” penalties
In the wake of these statements, Wall Street fell sharply, while oil prices soared.
Joe Biden’s adviser reaffirmed that Westerners were “ready for all scenarios”: unprecedented economic retaliation in the event of war, but also an outstretched diplomatic hand to continue negotiations with Moscow on security in Europe.
In the meantime, the Pentagon will send “in the coming days” 3,000 additional American soldiers to Poland to “reassure the NATO allies”.
Several rounds of talks in recent days have failed to defuse the crisis, born of the deployment in recent months on the borders of Ukraine of more than 100,000 Russian soldiers with heavy weapons.
“The allies are determined to take swift and drastic sanctions together against Russia” in the event of an attack, tweeted, after the meeting of Western leaders, the spokesman for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who is due to go at the start of next week in Moscow. Like Paris, Berlin insisted on the “diplomatic” way to move towards a “de-escalation”.
Sketched dramatic scenario
In addition to Joe Biden, Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz, the teleconference brought together the leaders of NATO and the EU, as well as the Polish President, Andrzej Duda, the Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, or the British Prime Minister. , Boris Johnson, who said “fear for the security of Europe”.
The White House has praised the “remarkable” unity of Westerners in the face of what they consider to be the most dangerous moment for Europe since the end of the Cold War 30 years ago. The Americans, who shared the analyzes of their intelligence services with their allies, sketched out a dramatic scenario in the event of a Russian offensive.
This “would probably start with aerial bombardments and missile fire which could obviously kill civilians”, said Jake Sullivan. It could also include “a rapid assault” on the capital Kiev.
The adviser called on Americans in Ukraine to leave the country “within 24 to 48 hours”, relaying the very direct warning issued the day before by Joe Biden, who had warned that “things could get carried away very quickly “.
The American president had however repeated that he would not send soldiers on the ground in Ukraine, even to evacuate Americans in the event of a Russian invasion, because that could trigger “a world war”.
The head of American diplomacy Antony Blinken, however, assured his Ukrainian counterpart on Friday of the “firm support” of the United States in Kiev “in the face of an increasingly acute threat” of Russian invasion.
Discussions without result
Friday, the Kremlin noted that discussions bringing together the day before in Berlin representatives of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France had produced “no result”.
These discussions focus on the conflict in eastern Ukraine which has pitted Russian-backed separatists against the Ukrainian army since 2014. It kills more than 14,000 people.
Moscow, which already annexed Crimea in 2014, denies any aggressive intentions towards Ukraine, but conditions any de-escalation on a series of demands, in particular the assurance that Kiev will never join NATO. Unacceptable, say Westerners.
Russia announced new military maneuvers on the Ukrainian border on Friday. In addition to the large-scale exercises launched Thursday in Belarus, it will engage in other training for “combat missions” in the Russian border region of Rostov, with hundreds of soldiers and tanks. The Russian Navy also conducts maneuvers in the Black Sea, of which Ukraine is bordering.