2023-10-27 12:55:00
Sunday, November 19, is the date chosen by the National Electoral Chamber for Argentines to return to the polls to choose between Sergio Massa y Javier Miley to the future president of the nation. In the prelude to this scenario there are three possibilities: that one of the presidential formulas is lowered before the chosen date, that only the presidential candidate is lowered or that both formulas arrive on the chosen day and the country, through the popular vote, have a new driver. Argentina has a history in two of these three eventualities.
Articles 97 and 98 of the Constitution establish that a president will assume office when his formula obtains more than 45% of the affirmative votes or at least 40% of the votes and a percentage difference greater than 10 points with respect to the formula. which follows in number of votes. The results of October 22 are far from that scenario, so the 47 million Argentines have a civic obligation to go to the polls for a second round.
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As explained in article 151 of the National Electoral Code, only the two formulas with the most votes in the first will participate in the second round. Whoever obtains the greatest number of validly cast affirmative votes will be the winning formula. However, until then there are three probabilities.
What happens if the formula is lowered
The failure of a candidate in the run-up to the elections only happened in 2003, when the formula headed by Carlos Menem (PJ) declined its participation in the run-off runoff, despite the fact that it had obtained first place in the general elections under the Nestor Kirchner.
Given this decision, it continued as indicated in article 155: “in the event of resignation of the two candidates of any of the two formulas with the most votes in the first round, the other will be proclaimed elected.”
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In the general elections that year, Carlos Menem and Juan Carlos Romero (Front for Loyalty/UCeDé) won with 24.45% over Néstor Kirchner – Daniel Scioli (Front for Victory), who obtained 22.25%. However, the polls that were circulating at that time showed Menem as the loser by a large majority, which led to the loss of the Riojan in the days before the second round. Thus, the then governor of Santa Cruz became the president with the lowest percentage of votes obtained in Argentine history.
A similar incident occurred in 1973. However, the law of that time established that the person who achieved a percentage greater than 50% was proclaimed president. In that election between Héctor Cámpora (PJ) and Ricardo Balbín (UCR), the Peronist leader obtained 46.5%. The radical leader gave up running and there was no second round.
What happens if only the president gives up?
Never in the history of our country has an instance like this happened. However, the national constitution establishes in article 155 that: “in the event of the resignation of one of the candidates of any of the two most voted formulas in the first electoral round, the vacancy produced cannot be filled. In the event that the resignation is of the presidential candidate, the vice presidential candidate will take his place.”
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If this possible scenario occurs, the candidates would be Agustín Rossi, in Unión por la Patria, or Victoria Villarruel, in La Libertad Avanza.
When is the runoff between Massa and Milei
The third option is for both candidates to reach the second round. As established by the National Electoral Board, the date is the next Sunday, November 19 and the voting place would be the same for all Argentines. Regarding the hours in which the popular vote can be exercised, the Electoral Board established that it will remain the same as in the last elections, that is, from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m.
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The only precedent in Argentine history that a presidential runoff has been held lies in 2015, when Macri (51.34%) beat Scioli (48.66%) by almost 700 thousand votes.
The context for the next runoff Sunday, November 19 shows to Javier Miley immersed in a media raid to capture the votes of the atomized Together for Change that will allow him to recover the first place obtained in the PASO. While, Sergio Massa He avoids controversies with his speech of “unity”, at the same time that he continues with his juggling in the Ministry of Economy to prevent the shadow of inflation from overshadowing his dream of reaching the Casa Rosada.
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