“With the ground frozen, there has generally been little change in travel conditions in eastern Ukraine in recent weeks,” the British Ministry of Defense said in an intelligence update on Twitter.
For the next week, however, forecasts suggest rising temperatures and melting snow are likely to reduce mobility across the Donbass.
“Mobility could be at its worst, with extremely muddy conditions, from mid to late March. Commanders on both sides will most likely seek to avoid planning attacks. big at such times. However, campaign opportunities or political implications may outweigh such concerns. This has been demonstrated by the launch of a special military operation by Russia at the end of February 2022,” the British Ministry of Defense noted.
Russia may find a way to make progress before “Rasputitsa” begins
Some Western observers think that the cold winter in Ukraine will provide an opportunity for both Russian and Ukrainian forces to regroup and rearm in the face of spring attacks, but fighting continues. , especially in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.
According to analysts, Russia will launch a new, large-scale attack within the next few weeks and will likely find a way to achieve results before “Rasputitsa” begins.
Max Hess, a fellow at the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies, said that “Rasputitsa” in the spring is more challenging than in the fall because vehicles will be more difficult to move due to the thaw.
“On the other hand, the current situation on the front lines is already different from what we saw in late autumn with the lines reinforced in the winter,” Hess said.
Ukraine has urgent, urgent problems to solve before the mud season arrives, especially when they see Russian forces approaching and besieging the city of Bakhmut in Donetsk slowly but surely.
“The main Russian offensive at the moment is around Bakhmut. The attacks there as well as at several other points along the line of control in Donetsk … were mostly infantry attacks on fortified positions so wouldn’t be affected too much by rasputitsa. Russian authorities have shown no sign of allowing the attacks to decrease in intensity,” Hess said.
“Bakhmut is in danger of falling to the Russian attacks of recent days on the towns of Chasiv Yar and Ivanivske, which have an important supply route from Kostyatynivka,” Hess warned.
“Weather may reduce Russia’s ability to gain potential advances in Bakhmut by disrupting Ukraine’s lines in the west, but I don’t think it can affect Russia’s willingness to launch a military strike.” such a heavy infantry attack,” Hess emphasized.